Example forecast specification.
See the structure of a transition forecast: a defined proposition, frozen evidence cutoff, declared baseline plan, and objective resolution rule.
Evidence summary
At-a-glance assessment
The upstream signal state and bottleneck before the coverage forecast.
High — pivotal trial published
Moderate — one confirmatory study
Moderate — growing consensus
Low — registry data accumulating
Rung 4→5 translation — insufficient real-world confirmation to trigger guideline procedural signal
Forecast specification
The fields that define this proposition
The registered fields below make the proposition resolvable and scoreable.
nc-39c02226c4ad How to verify Computed from the declared historical cohort
Frozen rules scored on the same cohort
Structured elicitation under the same resolution rule
Controlled prompt baseline with version recorded
CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage.
Upstream states at freeze
Rung 1–4 states locked at evidence cutoff
Rungs 1–4 record the public evidence state at cutoff. Later evidence belongs to a new registration.
Bottleneck diagnosis
Where the transition chain is limiting
The bottleneck identifies the rung currently limiting downstream movement.
Rung 4→5 translation: Insufficient real-world confirmation to trigger guideline procedural signal, which historically precedes coverage expansion.
The transition is likely to stall at rung 4 → 5 because real-world evidence confirmation has not yet reached the threshold that historically precedes guideline procedural signals. Until RWE signals strengthen, the momentum for authority action remains low.
Every registered forecast
What comes with the specification
Scoring only means something if the forecast is sealed off from hindsight and from your internal context. Four things hold that line, and they apply to every forecast we register.
What it's for
Built to arrive before a date you already have.
A brief like this is registered against a decision date you bring — a coverage review, a launch gate, a diligence window. The probability and its frozen evidence state go on the record ahead of that date, giving your team a dated basis to prepare documentation, coordinate evidence, and set review priorities while the authority's process is still open.
Whether earlier notice changes the decision is itself tested — that is what an Enterprise Application program measures.