Rebuild what was knowable—without leaking what happened next.

These public and synthetic cases test source lineage, version fidelity, and evidence cutoffs. They are research inputs—not prospective forecasts, registry entries, or proof of calibration.

2 Cases reconstructed
1 Reproducibility checked
1 Still being checked

Cases marked “watch” are still being checked for reproducibility. They demonstrate the reconstruction format and are not forecast results.

Support State:
Affected Claim Element (PICO):

Showing all historical reconstructions.

Cardiorenal Public example No change shown

Cardiorenal evidence review: CKD progression and cardiovascular outcomes

Nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist · Evidence Stability Review

CKD associated with Type 2 Diabetes

No material change shown for current intended use, subject to existing caveats.

Sourced from FDA labels, pivotal trial publications, and two major guideline bodies. Two phase 3 trials (n=13,026 pooled) with consistent kidney and cardiovascular composite outcomes. Guideline recommendations strengthened from suggested to recommended (Level A) over the observation window.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2020-10 FIDELIO-DKD primary results published
  • 2022-08 FDA label expansion to include CV indication
  • 2024-05 KDIGO guidance elevated recommendation to Level A · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Watch

Metabolic evidence example (T1D)

Illustrative · Regulatory Review

Type 1 Diabetes

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Historical example of evidence movement preceding formal regulatory recognition.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2022-11 First phase 3 readout in T1D population
  • 2023-07 Advisory committee discussion · Illustrative
  • 2024-02 Label expansion in comparator jurisdiction · Illustrative
Neurodegenerative Public example Re-review candidate

Sample Review Package: Restriction Review for Amyloid-Directed Therapy in Early Alzheimer's Disease

Amyloid-directed therapy · Coverage Review

Early Alzheimer's Disease

Evidence-supported scope has changed relative to stated use; a qualified reviewer should take another look.

A broad coverage topic narrowed to one testable disputed claim, a one-page committee baseline, and a source-bound audit appendix. Public-domain concepts only.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2021-06 Accelerated approval based on surrogate endpoint
  • 2023-01 CMS National Coverage Determination issued
  • 2024-07 Confirmatory trial CDR-SB results published · Illustrative
Neurodegenerative Public example Watch

Neurodegenerative review (Alzheimer's)

Illustrative · Safety Review

Alzheimer's Disease

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Historical example separating source-supported safety questions from public speculation.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2023-01 Safety signal surfaced in post-market registry
  • 2023-09 Regulatory request for enhanced safety review · Illustrative
  • 2024-12 Updated adverse-event meta-analysis · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Re-review candidate

Semaglutide (illustrative example): from high-risk comorbidity settings to general obesity weight management

GLP-1 receptor agonist · Population Drift Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Evidence-supported scope has changed relative to stated use; a qualified reviewer should take another look.

The same molecule is now being promoted in a broader population than the pivotal trials primarily studied. The move from high-risk diabetic or cardiovascular settings to general weight-management settings changes the strength of the supporting evidence and the review action.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2017-12 Initial FDA approval for Type 2 Diabetes
  • 2021-06 FDA approval for chronic weight management in adults with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity
  • 2024-03 SELECT trial cardiovascular outcomes published · Illustrative
  • 2025-01 CMS coverage determination for obesity indication issued · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Watch May warrant review

GLP-1 receptor agonist claim history: diabetes to obesity indication

GLP-1 receptor agonist · Provenance Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Reconstructed from 22 public encyclopedia revisions. Three claim families emerged: diabetes/family-history indication, obesity/weight-management indication, and a disputed pathway.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2009-01 Article created around GLP-1 agonists for type 2 diabetes
  • 2010-01 Dose and family-history details added
  • 2021-08 Obesity and weight-management claim drift appears
  • 2023-11 Disputed pathway surfaced by reverting edit pattern
Metabolic Public example Watch May warrant review

Liraglutide claim history: single-drug provenance reconstruction

Liraglutide · Provenance Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Reconstructed from 20 public encyclopedia revisions. Twenty-two stable claim families emerged; two-analyst reproducibility validation is pending.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2010-01 Liraglutide mentioned as under investigation in broader GLP-1 article
  • 2010-01 Approval status and dosing details added
  • 2012-01 Article structure stabilizes around approved indications
  • Historical reconstruction is labeled separately from prospective registration and resolution.
  • Later outcomes cannot enter the evidence state at the declared cutoff.
  • These cases test provenance and temporal integrity; they do not demonstrate calibration or useful lead time.