Claim Intelligence is ready today. The other two tiers still have to earn their place.
Claim Intelligence is the one you can contract for now — claim-trajectory reconstruction against a scope agreed in writing, delivered with the revision history behind every ranking. The other two tiers are labelled for where they actually stand.
What you bring
- One claim, drug, or class where knowing what moved would change your priorities. Starting with one is cheaper, and tells you whether portfolio-wide tracking is worth it.
- The decision it feeds — CI brief, safety review, evidence strategy, market access plan.
- A willingness to act on the answer, including "not yet consequential."
Available now
Claim IntelligenceHow claims about your drugs, your competitors, or a whole area emerged, changed, and spread.
- Trajectory reconstruction — first appearance through wording changes, evidence, persistence, spread.
- Historical provenance — when it emerged, whether contested, how long it held.
- Source-by-source comparison — how it reads across drug, condition, and class pages.
- Cohort analysis — which claims are shared, contested, or unique to one drug.
- Ongoing monitoring — claims you name, with alerts when signals change.
Rebuilt from dated public revisions, each one carrying a hash you can recompute against the same sources.
In validation
Trajectory PrioritizationRanking, not just reconstruction. In test across a 19-drug cohort, to establish whether it changes what teams investigate first.
- Trajectory prioritization — ranked by accelerating support, persistence, qualifier loss, propagation, authority convergence.
- Authority-readiness — which claims converge with regulator language, which diverge from policy.
- Monitoring workflows — alerts when a claim crosses a signal threshold.
Not contractable yet. When it ships it is scoped as a paid extension of a Claim Intelligence program, never as unpaid research participation.
Research program
ForecastingTests whether trajectory features forecast rung 5–7 transitions. FF-001 is registered against a 2027-07-31 deadline; its adjudicators are not yet named.
- Registered authority forecasts — prospectively registered, immutable, independently adjudicated.
- Calibration studies — Brier scores, calibration curves, and resolution skill against four declared baselines, once forecasts resolve.
- Lead-time analysis — interval between a trajectory crossing threshold and the authority acting. A design target, not a measured result.
Available as a funded research collaboration. What you fund is the protocol and the registered record — the record that will show whether these forecasts are worth relying on.
Validation status by forecast class
No forecast class carries a calibration record yet — Regulatory action (FDA) · Guideline listing (NCCN, ESMO) · Coverage determination (CMS, commercial) · Evidence production (support-state) are each offered on judgment rather than a track record.
Each tier is judged on its own criteria, and success in one does not imply success in the next. Calibration is the standard for forecasting. Claim Intelligence is held to a different one: rebuild it from the same public revisions and compare the hash.
Safety and adverse-event signals never enter the corpus — efficacy and coverage evidence transacts without failure-to-warn exposure.
For the person who has to vouch for it
The two parts that decide whether the output is trustworthy.
Every event is labelled: evidence movement, public assimilation, authority-language importation, editorial maintenance, or noise. Without it, housekeeping and a claim gaining ground look alike.
Byte-for-byte reproducible from the public record; the hash proves it has not been altered. Check our working rather than trust it.
Boundary
What we produce, and what you decide
We reconstruct the trajectories, classify the movement, and hand over the evidence. Whether one is material, and what to do about it, is yours. We supply the record — never the recommendation.
How a program starts
Stop after any step; nothing is signed until both scope and figure are in writing.
- Scope conversation
Send the drug, class, or area and the decision it feeds. No NDA needed at this stage — the fit check works from public sources and the decision you name.
- Fit decision, including no
Whether the record there is thick enough to reconstruct from. Where it is not, you get that answer instead of a proposal.
- Fixed-scope statement of work
Which drugs, how far back, how many claims monitored, what you receive and when — with the figure attached.
- Contracting and delivery
NextConsensus, Inc., a Delaware corporation. Mutual NDA and DPA templates on request, settled in writing before work starts.