Verify a record
Check the proposition, evidence cutoff, probability, and resolution rule recorded before the outcome was known. Each registration carries a ledger hash. The tool below recomputes a separate specification hash from the published terms. You can compare that hash with a copy you saved earlier to check for changes.
Registered questions, outcomes still pending
Registry snapshot: . Several records concern the same asset, with overlapping outcomes.
- Registered
- 56
- Resolved yes or no
- 0
- Unresolved
- 56
- Expired
- 0
Registration fixes what was estimated and when. Each forecast is scored once its deadline passes and the outcome is adjudicated, against the three baselines registered beside it.
Reporting format set in advance
Where the results will go
The reporting format was published before any forecast resolved. The bins are the ones set out on the method page.
| Measure | 0–20% | 20–40% | 40–60% | 60–80% | 80–100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Resolved | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 or more points from the base rate: 0 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 2 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart
| Measure | 0–20% | 20–40% | 40–60% | 60–80% | 80–100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Resolved | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 or more points from the base rate: 0 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 2 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart
| Measure | 0–20% | 20–40% | 40–60% | 60–80% | 80–100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| Resolved | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 or more points from the base rate: 9 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 19 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart
| Measure | 0–20% | 20–40% | 40–60% | 60–80% | 80–100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered | 1 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Resolved | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15 or more points from the base rate: 13 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 11 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart
It was drawn empty on purpose and fills in as forecasts resolve, whether or not the result flatters us. For a class, the share that occurred in each bin is added once the class has 15 admissible resolved forecasts, and not before. No line is drawn for how it should look.
Every registration and its hash
Records run in the order they were registered, each with the hash minted when its commitment was frozen. This page is for checking a record, not for choosing among them; to read the collection by authority, by class, or by your own date, use the forecast collection.
ad43205978351a4affaeb1d6b2cbe00dd6aa0bdf3ac78fd24f9d7259ca3f34fd 56015937eab42488ee1a6706401594c56146be557f1536688ff27c3835e0b2c5 c1f038e701df6f687ad521494d0f0e5fec7c39b3f565f3e38732de1317ea768a 114dae9f9853bf368b35569c63d28c9aa3f183dbd10bebe9c4f5654b63d86f84 a5cceddb217f50728de0be9b274908b92398542751b2c1e5f5aac2647294e93c 56a534eeec5d40e039a81e7783a01a2d1661afbbb6bb11f9b30d64fd36dbdf25 7a94b79fadc84e089049a64c530c032a32cfc876c966e1f24e37683f016a66e8 53dcbd72a686d5c74158eebc1b0aca044cd2fa9b317017ce1645fe902cdcb6ec 132037f290c965911776fecf29f898a2e433a4794ebee5b18eb54c6e3c04a89d 9c6197a7bfbb4b11603222825b467a6fa2ee4e9aba0ce2f6bfaedde7d7b30a28 8a2d166c0ea14aa76d0a28312995a97f845fb8289237dadc0a520404c5c5de3c d9729672f768800f59c0828a962a9f8b7911e1225296817037a10b5de6b5049d 0b638dd5666d29fd6769192cbf9068ceb940dba70bb0e7bfe01b84028d705d81 669bf39db23b33d8c6a6d624bcf63ac8d7517ed44c4226e27f6a7f975fd9f9a8 e715bfe2a8099aa2162258d2a6d0d934776705ce86bdf980ef67ca4d9312c55c f3dc7e9a0fd079f1f2cdf78b395ae1c89f8f451aca00d735ed257eedc8f2dee0 cdce96623d2c92f80738e1efa131809f0a4c32da26098ac171e673d16acdb1bf 735f8ef595baeaab7844eb785692fe6d897f514e5ab3ec702c5fbe5eede0a5d9 110ca8dcc7a2c2ab6b417d5a355b88cdffff103181b3503873d10c7a1b251019 4fe0cbed9b8443dea2133c8f88dd3c452aac74eeec41fe93439f55fabfe997fd 80d14b258192d4b4d16dabc0f47be5dc510901f559ce701020f11b39224e5e22 f8ceb2e7f05c5212e38731e78252d5bace74d5a31bc67309afabc65c3ba0d2e4 7fa4097d054e825b3e0895600217f1b711f8a49430c6b2980b9d0233e9cd659a 78267586fe018127a09ef07cd55d477d78dbace1df7d6bdad0b43c4e4704ac9e a912641a8f1dfb783320fb6599a0e4d8f2aa1d9250f29ebb3abe316ffc6a68b0 3579c949d3f51f469db7d882ce86439cd190f53841739638ddb56b1413b12a61 e47801540786a6fe2ed9a4a168e3e7923e30b1e5efe6a34cee6a64d3108081f8 1e21419a5ead2a82d8f93717b1141df0883f93890b2fe56fa3a8b3ed2b5a1912 6743177dc95da81113b18db16a14f1716ec4a7783c26571d1e8e3498debb1daa 9f476a053fbff5ae6708d1471fa3d3dedd96b3a9a3e75f53b0d346ae088a458b ee048aedc9382c734fe3af3f5a44247c1270bba9983104a3991026af98262a61 41c59f846806fdd51750606007d7d5861960bd532e5b23f07b3ba897880a15b7 44b1dd75f68f58f6cbca5c7e8c96d7e47592152e153061faf20a6a112851d076 fc3ac1610959707a4812d77bb108b55de1f4cd352bd231e60d6d3408aec5ddf8 55d89291184e24857575879dca8c42900a4c1e7c2030d141349a63f201dde604 6cd7820ace1c35bc8346892f8b767d059fcb0e7d819a5fdef261a11e9b8aa51b f5b0d0e15845147745cfcc30691b9f9314ab5be9b7aa69a5bd017808ef69fbbf eb859c0c6bf868c64a229e71b88539f59e62388e409b7a9133a68d49981a67be a624a0d9838b59f45db4c61034d461d288285786d4e1aaca59b960eb45dd7bf8 5b25ed2891c9f0d828b97d9634c7ed70df46c28b34267c94559913ce6e1d65ef 556605b8b10aa17c3a3f2c875283c26d64b96b2ab99b50d9642e35254f0b502e 4b9f547e41c686454406c0b42587ad96ffae36e5fb558f2f4593b2c7c97f13d9 d902cf0e98b73d882284e593712357ec3e10e57b41ffc3aa6299748a7b1512c1 1538844d949089accb6f028165bb4a479dbb648525433afaeaa75602daa91b16 8b208db8497b08d9f2b1d79efd1b3eb15e4c5ccd2cd78c455a887da72420f9d9 7d58d3ccc4f675de696cdbed410ac76e0198710c03c6c10f60f7f3691c5f4822 9c51088291ab311f3c636cb2e206928cd7cdccc0514f8d1f59f36c91a80149f7 1c0eae273bc6b82f713fbd6719cd297f5258c7a10c8f6559bd0aa7eef528c792 9fa7009db5ca9c68eeaeadef57686242b38043921756c0c9b8b3d7693485cf2b 35103f3939b15ede34d42a73e3351cf55b355784a43a5c462c6d8ae4a99022b1 6822a458b0f44f7f702e13a50c348c5445175cbee3beec3c29da4872387276ec 77542815d601a1066bbbf805e0899f618d82b7d818aaf8d056f7bfa32fd5f5b7 46b8f22573354dbaf2a5b1906a9032fa8d1670a760ef413cc6f6671b0b62f077 955bbe9e2e4d7a1f28f9a9d278895a3d923a092668490aff384daaaacc285cbe ccc2005d756e61bfa21549038147bbf5764e2c7dde8df9c2fd9b8ebcd49bdfe7 0da7134ee5a59e2e0876cd4738ad186afcae68e6496ab24c8363a8d5c09a7fd1 56 registered, 0 resolved. Each row carries the ledger hash minted when its commitment was frozen. The specification hash above is computed over the published terms and is a different digest.
Correction, 6 October 2026: FF-001 and FF-005 to FF-022 were registered on their stated dates in a development copy of the ledger, not the production ledger. On 7 October (UTC) they were copied into the production ledger with their original identifiers, hashes, and registration times, and each is marked there as an import. The registry's public commit history shows when each was registered.
The record on its own, without the estimate: an evidence ledger shows the dated, sourced, hash-chained record the registered forecast's sources were archived from.
Recompute the specification hash
For compliance officers, diligence teams, and data auditors: every published forecast specification can be independently recomputed against its canonical fields using standard SHA-256 digests. The specification hash below covers the fixed-order fields (proposition, authority, rung, deadline, cutoff, threshold, resolution rule, and method version).
Below are FF-001's published terms; edit any field and watch the digest change. This is not the ledger hash; the ledger hash is minted over commitment fields that this page does not publish, so it identifies the record without being reproducible here.
Auditing outside this page
For technical diligence and compliance review: recompute the specification digest directly in your own environment using Node.js or any standard crypto library. Any environment that can run SHA-256 on the serialized fields will reproduce the nc-v1 specification hash of the worked example above.
node -e "const {createHash}=require('node:crypto');const t=process.argv[1];console.log(createHash('sha256').update(t).digest('hex'))" "scheme=nc-v1
method=v0.1.0
proposition=A version of the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer carrying a version date on or before 2027-07-31 lists sunvozertinib (ZEGFROVY) as a first-line / initial systemic therapy option, at any NCCN category, for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive metastatic non-squamous NSCLC.
authority=National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)
rung=5 — Rung 5: Guideline action
deadline=2027-07-31
evidence_cutoff=2026-07-31
threshold=75%
resolution=Resolves YES if any NCCN NSCLC guideline version dated on or before 2027-07-31 names sunvozertinib (or ZEGFROVY) anywhere in the initial-systemic-therapy recommendation set for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive metastatic non-squamous NSCLC, at any category (1, 2A, 2B, or 3) and whether or not it is marked preferred. The adjudicator reads the NSCLC algorithm page for initial systemic therapy in EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive disease and the corresponding systemic therapy tables, in the latest version dated on or before 2027-07-31. Resolves NO if no such version names it there. Listing confined to subsequent-line or post-progression therapy does NOT count. Access requires free NCCN registration; no clinical judgement about the drug is needed to apply this rule."