Verify a record

Check the proposition, evidence cutoff, probability, and resolution rule recorded before the outcome was known. Each registration carries a ledger hash. The tool below recomputes a separate specification hash from the published terms. You can compare that hash with a copy you saved earlier to check for changes.

Registered questions, outcomes still pending

Registry snapshot: . Several records concern the same asset, with overlapping outcomes.

Registered
56
Resolved yes or no
0
Unresolved
56
Expired
0

Registration fixes what was estimated and when. Each forecast is scored once its deadline passes and the outcome is adjudicated, against the three baselines registered beside it.

Verify a record · Read the research questions

Reporting format set in advance

Where the results will go

The reporting format was published before any forecast resolved. The bins are the ones set out on the method page.

Registered probability, in five bins fixed before any outcome
NCCN guideline reclassification 2 registered
Measure 0–20%20–40%40–60%60–80%80–100%
Registered 0 0 1 1 0
Resolved 00000

15 or more points from the base rate: 0 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 2 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart

FDA label revision 2 registered
Measure 0–20%20–40%40–60%60–80%80–100%
Registered 0 0 1 0 1
Resolved 00000

15 or more points from the base rate: 0 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 2 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart

FDA action by goal date 28 registered
Measure 0–20%20–40%40–60%60–80%80–100%
Registered 1 2 3 9 13
Resolved 00000

15 or more points from the base rate: 9 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 19 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart

NICE guidance by scheduled date 24 registered
Measure 0–20%20–40%40–60%60–80%80–100%
Registered 1 12 11 0 0
Resolved 00000

15 or more points from the base rate: 13 registered, 0 resolved. The rest: 11 registered, 0 resolved. Why they are counted apart

It was drawn empty on purpose and fills in as forecasts resolve, whether or not the result flatters us. For a class, the share that occurred in each bin is added once the class has 15 admissible resolved forecasts, and not before. No line is drawn for how it should look.

Every registration and its hash

Records run in the order they were registered, each with the hash minted when its commitment was frozen. This page is for checking a record, not for choosing among them; to read the collection by authority, by class, or by your own date, use the forecast collection.

Record Hash
Method version v0.1.0 Current scheme nc-v1
FF-001 · NCCN lists sunvozertinib as a first-line option in EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC Registered 2026-08-17, resolves by 2027-07-31, resolution pending ledger ad43205978351a4affaeb1d6b2cbe00dd6aa0bdf3ac78fd24f9d7259ca3f34fd
FF-002 · FDA approves a first-line indication for sunvozertinib in EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC Registered 2026-09-22, resolves by 2027-07-31, resolution pending ledger 56015937eab42488ee1a6706401594c56146be557f1536688ff27c3835e0b2c5
FF-003 · FDA approves first-line sunvozertinib in EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC on or before 2027-03-31 Registered 2026-09-22, resolves by 2027-07-31, resolution pending ledger c1f038e701df6f687ad521494d0f0e5fec7c39b3f565f3e38732de1317ea768a
FF-004 · FDA first-line approval of sunvozertinib precedes the NCCN first-line listing Registered 2026-09-22, resolves by 2027-07-31, resolution pending ledger 114dae9f9853bf368b35569c63d28c9aa3f183dbd10bebe9c4f5654b63d86f84
FF-005 · FDA approves the aficamten MAPLE-HCM supplement to NDA 219083 on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-14 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-14, resolution pending ledger a5cceddb217f50728de0be9b274908b92398542751b2c1e5f5aac2647294e93c
FF-006 · FDA approves BBP-418 for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I/R9 on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-27 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-27, resolution pending ledger 56a534eeec5d40e039a81e7783a01a2d1661afbbb6bb11f9b30d64fd36dbdf25
FF-007 · FDA approves bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-10-26 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-10-26, resolution pending ledger 7a94b79fadc84e089049a64c530c032a32cfc876c966e1f24e37683f016a66e8
FF-008 · FDA approves deramiocel for Duchenne muscular dystrophy on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-22 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-22, resolution pending ledger 53dcbd72a686d5c74158eebc1b0aca044cd2fa9b317017ce1645fe902cdcb6ec
FF-009 · FDA approves the IGALMI at-home use supplement to NDA 215390 on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-14 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-14, resolution pending ledger 132037f290c965911776fecf29f898a2e433a4794ebee5b18eb54c6e3c04a89d
FF-010 · FDA approves INO-3107 for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-10-30 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-10-30, resolution pending ledger 9c6197a7bfbb4b11603222825b467a6fa2ee4e9aba0ce2f6bfaedde7d7b30a28
FF-011 · FDA approves ivonescimab for EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer after EGFR TKI therapy on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-14 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-14, resolution pending ledger 8a2d166c0ea14aa76d0a28312995a97f845fb8289237dadc0a520404c5c5de3c
FF-012 · FDA approves the mitapivat sickle cell disease supplement to NDA 216196 on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-01 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-01, resolution pending ledger d9729672f768800f59c0828a962a9f8b7911e1225296817037a10b5de6b5049d
FF-013 · FDA approves molgramostim (MOLBREEVI) for autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-22 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-22, resolution pending ledger 0b638dd5666d29fd6769192cbf9068ceb940dba70bb0e7bfe01b84028d705d81
FF-014 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Beremagene geperpavec for treating skin wounds associated with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa [ID3959] on or before 2026-11-18 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-18, resolution pending ledger 669bf39db23b33d8c6a6d624bcf63ac8d7517ed44c4226e27f6a7f975fd9f9a8
FF-015 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Efgartigimod for treating chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy [ID6409] on or before 2026-11-18 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-18, resolution pending ledger e715bfe2a8099aa2162258d2a6d0d934776705ce86bdf980ef67ca4d9312c55c
FF-018 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Larotrectinib for treating NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumours (MA review of TA630) [ID6292] on or before 2026-11-18 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-18, resolution pending ledger 735f8ef595baeaab7844eb785692fe6d897f514e5ab3ec702c5fbe5eede0a5d9
FF-019 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Nivolumab with ipilimumab for untreated advanced hepatocellular carcinoma [ID6239] on or before 2026-11-11 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-11, resolution pending ledger 110ca8dcc7a2c2ab6b417d5a355b88cdffff103181b3503873d10c7a1b251019
FF-020 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Orforglipron for managing overweight and obesity [ID6516] on or before 2026-11-18 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-18, resolution pending ledger 4fe0cbed9b8443dea2133c8f88dd3c452aac74eeec41fe93439f55fabfe997fd
FF-022 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Zuranolone for treating postnatal depression [ID6431] on or before 2026-11-12 Registered 2026-09-26, resolves by 2026-11-12, resolution pending ledger f8ceb2e7f05c5212e38731e78252d5bace74d5a31bc67309afabc65c3ba0d2e4
FF-023 · FDA approves bezuclastinib with sunitinib for gastrointestinal stromal tumor after imatinib on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-30 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-30, resolution pending ledger 7fa4097d054e825b3e0895600217f1b711f8a49430c6b2980b9d0233e9cd659a
FF-024 · FDA approves D-PLEX100 (extended-release doxycycline) for prevention of surgical site infections in colorectal surgery on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-28 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-28, resolution pending ledger 78267586fe018127a09ef07cd55d477d78dbace1df7d6bdad0b43c4e4704ac9e
FF-025 · FDA approves neladalkib for ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer after a prior ALK inhibitor on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-27 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-27, resolution pending ledger a912641a8f1dfb783320fb6599a0e4d8f2aa1d9250f29ebb3abe316ffc6a68b0
FF-026 · FDA approves povetacicept for IgA nephropathy on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-30 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-30, resolution pending ledger 3579c949d3f51f469db7d882ce86439cd190f53841739638ddb56b1413b12a61
FF-027 · FDA approves venglustat for type 3 Gaucher disease on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-25 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-25, resolution pending ledger e47801540786a6fe2ed9a4a168e3e7923e30b1e5efe6a34cee6a64d3108081f8
FF-028 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Obicetrapib and obicetrapib–ezetimibe for treating primary hypercholesterolaemia or mixed dyslipidaemia [ID6519] on or before 2026-11-25 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-25, resolution pending ledger 1e21419a5ead2a82d8f93717b1141df0883f93890b2fe56fa3a8b3ed2b5a1912
FF-029 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Polihexanide 0.8 mg/ml eye drops for treating acanthamoeba keratitis in people 12 years and over [ID6497] on or before 2026-11-25 Registered 2026-10-06, resolves by 2026-11-25, resolution pending ledger 6743177dc95da81113b18db16a14f1716ec4a7783c26571d1e8e3498debb1daa
FF-030 · FDA approves anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel) for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more lines on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-23 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-23, resolution pending ledger 9f476a053fbff5ae6708d1471fa3d3dedd96b3a9a3e75f53b0d346ae088a458b
FF-031 · FDA approves bezuclastinib for nonadvanced systemic mastocytosis on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-30 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-30, resolution pending ledger ee048aedc9382c734fe3af3f5a44247c1270bba9983104a3991026af98262a61
FF-032 · FDA approves imsidolimab for generalized pustular psoriasis on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-12 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-12, resolution pending ledger 41c59f846806fdd51750606007d7d5861960bd532e5b23f07b3ba897880a15b7
FF-033 · FDA approves lorundrostat for hypertension on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-22 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-22, resolution pending ledger 44b1dd75f68f58f6cbca5c7e8c96d7e47592152e153061faf20a6a112851d076
FF-034 · FDA approves relacorilant for Cushing's syndrome (resubmission) on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-17 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-17, resolution pending ledger fc3ac1610959707a4812d77bb108b55de1f4cd352bd231e60d6d3408aec5ddf8
FF-035 · FDA approves relutrigine for SCN2A and SCN8A developmental and epileptic encephalopathies on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-27 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-27, resolution pending ledger 55d89291184e24857575879dca8c42900a4c1e7c2030d141349a63f201dde604
FF-036 · FDA approves ulixacaltamide for essential tremor on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-01-29 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-29, resolution pending ledger 6cd7820ace1c35bc8346892f8b767d059fcb0e7d819a5fdef261a11e9b8aa51b
FF-037 · FDA approves zeleciment rostudirsen (z-rostudirsen) for Duchenne muscular dystrophy amenable to exon 51 skipping on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-01-21 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-21, resolution pending ledger f5b0d0e15845147745cfcc30691b9f9314ab5be9b7aa69a5bd017808ef69fbbf
FF-038 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Elranatamab for treating relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more treatments (managed access review of TA1023) [ID6653] on or before 2027-01-28 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-28, resolution pending ledger eb859c0c6bf868c64a229e71b88539f59e62388e409b7a9133a68d49981a67be
FF-039 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Nerandomilast for treating idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or progressive pulmonary fibrosis [ID6446] on or before 2027-01-20 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-20, resolution pending ledger a624a0d9838b59f45db4c61034d461d288285786d4e1aaca59b960eb45dd7bf8
FF-041 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Tarlatamab for treating extensive stage small-cell lung cancer that has progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy [ID6617] on or before 2027-01-13 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-13, resolution pending ledger 556605b8b10aa17c3a3f2c875283c26d64b96b2ab99b50d9642e35254f0b502e
FF-042 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Toripalimab with chemotherapy for untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer [ID6406] on or before 2027-01-13 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-13, resolution pending ledger 4b9f547e41c686454406c0b42587ad96ffae36e5fb558f2f4593b2c7c97f13d9
FF-044 · FDA approves oral infigratinib for children with achondroplasia on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-02-04 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-02-04, resolution pending ledger 1538844d949089accb6f028165bb4a479dbb648525433afaeaa75602daa91b16
FF-045 · FDA approves once-weekly oral lenacapavir (YEZTUGO) for HIV-1 pre-exposure prophylaxis on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-02-02 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-02-02, resolution pending ledger 8b208db8497b08d9f2b1d79efd1b3eb15e4c5ccd2cd78c455a887da72420f9d9
FF-046 · FDA approves the leniolisib (JOENJA) pediatric supplement for APDS in children weighing 13 kg to 27 kg on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-01-30 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-01-30, resolution pending ledger 7d58d3ccc4f675de696cdbed410ac76e0198710c03c6c10f60f7f3691c5f4822
FF-047 · FDA approves fast-acting meloxicam (MR-107A-02) for moderate-to-severe acute pain on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-27 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-27, resolution pending ledger 9c51088291ab311f3c636cb2e206928cd7cdccc0514f8d1f59f36c91a80149f7
FF-048 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Intrathecal onasemnogene abeparvovec for treating spinal muscular atrophy in people 2 years and over [ID6556] on or before 2026-11-25 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-11-25, resolution pending ledger 1c0eae273bc6b82f713fbd6719cd297f5258c7a10c8f6559bd0aa7eef528c792
FF-049 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Pembrolizumab with enfortumab vedotin for neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer [ID6607] on or before 2027-02-10 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-02-10, resolution pending ledger 9fa7009db5ca9c68eeaeadef57686242b38043921756c0c9b8b3d7693485cf2b
FF-050 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Resmetirom for treating non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis [ID6529] on or before 2026-12-09 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2026-12-09, resolution pending ledger 35103f3939b15ede34d42a73e3351cf55b355784a43a5c462c6d8ae4a99022b1
FF-052 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Tislelizumab with chemotherapy for untreated advanced oesophageal squamous cell cancer [ID5113] on or before 2027-02-10 Registered 2026-10-15, resolves by 2027-02-10, resolution pending ledger 77542815d601a1066bbbf805e0899f618d82b7d818aaf8d056f7bfa32fd5f5b7
FF-053 · FDA approves oral tinlarebant for Stargardt disease type 1 on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-02-12 Registered 2026-10-21, resolves by 2027-02-12, resolution pending ledger 46b8f22573354dbaf2a5b1906a9032fa8d1670a760ef413cc6f6671b0b62f077
FF-054 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Linvoseltamab for treating relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more treatments [ID6609] on or before 2027-02-17 Registered 2026-10-21, resolves by 2027-02-17, resolution pending ledger 955bbe9e2e4d7a1f28f9a9d278895a3d923a092668490aff384daaaacc285cbe
FF-055 · NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Setmelanotide for treating acquired hypothalamic obesity in people 4 years and over [ID6542] on or before 2027-02-10 Registered 2026-10-26, resolves by 2027-02-10, resolution pending ledger ccc2005d756e61bfa21549038147bbf5764e2c7dde8df9c2fd9b8ebcd49bdfe7
FF-056 · FDA approves the ZORYVE (roflumilast) cream 0.05% supplement for atopic dermatitis in infants aged 3 to 24 months on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-02-23 Registered 2026-10-26, resolves by 2027-02-23, resolution pending ledger 0da7134ee5a59e2e0876cd4738ad186afcae68e6496ab24c8363a8d5c09a7fd1

56 registered, 0 resolved. Each row carries the ledger hash minted when its commitment was frozen. The specification hash above is computed over the published terms and is a different digest.

Correction, 6 October 2026: FF-001 and FF-005 to FF-022 were registered on their stated dates in a development copy of the ledger, not the production ledger. On 7 October (UTC) they were copied into the production ledger with their original identifiers, hashes, and registration times, and each is marked there as an import. The registry's public commit history shows when each was registered.

The record on its own, without the estimate: an evidence ledger shows the dated, sourced, hash-chained record the registered forecast's sources were archived from.

Recompute the specification hash

For compliance officers, diligence teams, and data auditors: every published forecast specification can be independently recomputed against its canonical fields using standard SHA-256 digests. The specification hash below covers the fixed-order fields (proposition, authority, rung, deadline, cutoff, threshold, resolution rule, and method version).

Below are FF-001's published terms; edit any field and watch the digest change. This is not the ledger hash; the ledger hash is minted over commitment fields that this page does not publish, so it identifies the record without being reproducible here.

Computed Short Hash (nc-v1) nc-381c658d5bbe
Full SHA-256 Digest 381c658d5bbe4846787c53aef71284a1efa90d080e67fe1b0d8c1ab5bb65bcd9

Auditing outside this page

For technical diligence and compliance review: recompute the specification digest directly in your own environment using Node.js or any standard crypto library. Any environment that can run SHA-256 on the serialized fields will reproduce the nc-v1 specification hash of the worked example above.

node -e "const {createHash}=require('node:crypto');const t=process.argv[1];console.log(createHash('sha256').update(t).digest('hex'))" "scheme=nc-v1
method=v0.1.0
proposition=A version of the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer carrying a version date on or before 2027-07-31 lists sunvozertinib (ZEGFROVY) as a first-line / initial systemic therapy option, at any NCCN category, for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive metastatic non-squamous NSCLC.
authority=National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)
rung=5 — Rung 5: Guideline action
deadline=2027-07-31
evidence_cutoff=2026-07-31
threshold=75%
resolution=Resolves YES if any NCCN NSCLC guideline version dated on or before 2027-07-31 names sunvozertinib (or ZEGFROVY) anywhere in the initial-systemic-therapy recommendation set for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive metastatic non-squamous NSCLC, at any category (1, 2A, 2B, or 3) and whether or not it is marked preferred. The adjudicator reads the NSCLC algorithm page for initial systemic therapy in EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive disease and the corresponding systemic therapy tables, in the latest version dated on or before 2027-07-31. Resolves NO if no such version names it there. Listing confined to subsequent-line or post-progression therapy does NOT count. Access requires free NCCN registration; no clinical judgement about the drug is needed to apply this rule."