Registered forecast
35% registered probability event by 2026-11-25 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Polihexanide 0.8 mg/ml eye drops for treating acanthamoeba keratitis in people 12 years and over [ID6497] on or before 2026-11-25
FF-029 Registered - Registered probability
- 35%
- Event by
- 2026-11-25
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-07 → 2026-11-25
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 55%
- Analyst proxy 35%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-029/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-06. It is one of 11 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Polihexanide 0.8 mg/ml eye drops for treating acanthamoeba keratitis in people 12 years and over' [ID6497], with a publication date on or before 2026-11-25, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11643) on 2026-10-01.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Highly Specialised Technologies Evaluation Committee, appraising under the technology appraisal process (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Acanthamoeba keratitis in people 12 years and over
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a second committee meeting 125 days before the expected date is treated as on schedule: the model assumes final draft guidance and an appeal period fit in that time.
An analyst reading the project page on 2026-10-01 would note negative draft guidance and no final draft guidance 70 days after the second meeting, and would read the silence as a sign the schedule has slipped. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-10-06
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-10-06
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-10-07 → 2026-11-25
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-25
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
6743177dc95da81113b18db16a14f1716ec4a7783c26571d1e8e3498debb1daa · operator record jc-1791309829118-41c6f966
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6497 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-25, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6497. Searching for GID-TA11643 finds the same project. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-25, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-25, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. A suspension, however NICE words it, resolves NO. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. A removal that NICE describes as temporary, or after which the appraisal resumes, is a suspension. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-12-02. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11643, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 35% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-06.
- review pathway
- STA process considered by the highly specialised technologies evaluation committee (SRC-001, SRC-003, SRC-005)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company SIFI S.p.a. (SRC-001)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- Comparator company: Thorton & Ross Ltd (propamidine) - confidentiality agreement not signed, not participating (SRC-001)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting 1: 22 January 2026; draft guidance 13 February - 06 March 2026; committee meeting 2: 23 July 2026, 125 days before the expected publication date of 25 November 2026; no FDG by 01 October 2026 (SRC-001, SRC-002).
- sponsor request status
- No company request for more time or pause is recorded in the archived sources.
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- None recorded in the archived sources.
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-06 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
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SRC-001NICE in-development page (Project information tab) for GID-TA11643. Shows 'Expected publication date: 25 November 2026', status 'In progress', 'Process: STA Standard', provisional schedule (expected publication 25 November 2026 only), comparator company and the timeline (committee meeting 1 on 22 January 2026; draft guidance 13 February - 06 March 2026; 22 May 2026 note scheduling the next meeting for 23 July 2026; committee meeting 2 on 23 July 2026). -
SRC-002NICE Project documents tab for GID-TA11643. Latest document: register of interests 'Published: 03 August 2026'; draft guidance 'Published: 13 February 2026'; no final draft guidance listed at retrieval. -
SRC-003Draft guidance consultation PDF (issue date February 2026). Recommendation 1.1 (should not be used), key dates (closing date for comments 06 March 2026; second evaluation committee meeting 'To be confirmed') and that the highly specialised technologies evaluation committee is the evaluating committee. -
SRC-004NICE note page (Project documents) for GID-TA11643 (undated): 'The appraisal committee meeting will now take place on 22 January 2026.' -
SRC-005Confirmed minutes of the NICE Highly Specialised Technologies Evaluation Committee, Thursday 22 January 2026 (Word). Records the appraisal of polihexanide eye drops [ID6497] with company SIFI SpA and a discussion of the evidence. -
SRC-006NICE Highly specialised technologies evaluation committee page. Lists next meeting dates (22 October, 19 November, 17 December 2026) and published minutes; the most recent 2026 minutes listed are for 21 May 2026 (none yet for 23 July 2026).