About NextConsensus
NextConsensus forecasts institutional action, not medical truth: for the claims behind your asset, the probability that a named regulator, guideline body, or payer changes its position by a date.
- What we contribute now
- Registered forecasts for upcoming guideline, label, and coverage decisions, each scored after its deadline (the method page has the standard). Alongside them, dated reconstructions of how the claims behind an asset were worded, supported, and contested across regulators and payers, for commercial and HEOR teams before committee meetings. Both are available today; the programs page carries the validation status of each forecast class.
- Under test
- Whether earlier movement in the published record, such as new results supporting a claim or qualifiers being removed, improves forecasts of downstream decisions. None of the forecasts registered so far depends on that improvement: each is built from the decision's own formal review record. The registry holds 29 registered forecasts, 0 resolved; each is adjudicated in public after its deadline, whatever the result, and a class gets a calibration figure once 15 in it have resolved. If the language movement adds nothing, the registry and the dated reconstructions stand on their own.
- What we model
- For each key claim behind an asset: what clinical evidence demonstrates, what each regulator, guideline body, and payer has formally committed to, and where those positions diverge, dated as each one changes. A forecast gives the probability of a specified action by one of those decision-makers before a deadline.
Kanav Jain
Founder. Built products at Epic, Doximity, Transcarent, and CancerCompass.
Those products were used by clinicians, patients, and healthcare organizations to manage care access, communication, and navigation. He co-founded Andwise, a fiduciary financial planning service for physicians, then built governance infrastructure for algorithmic healthcare systems.
Evidence can change before the next review
New trial results, guideline revisions, and coverage updates may arrive between scheduled reviews. Teams preparing a submission or launch need to check what changed since their evidence package was assembled.
We compare public revisions and return a dated history, with sources for each change.
Where to start
Find planning questions for your team, or read about the research still under test.
How Refract fits
Refract is the open-source machinery that rebuilds versioned public records. NextConsensus builds on Refract to read claim histories, write propositions, and test forecasts in public.