Discovery
Which transitions are worth watching.
The submission-led product assumes you already know the right question. Discovery is the other half — identifying emerging institutional transitions where the evidence is moving toward a resolvable authority action, before you would have asked.
Two functions, one system
Discovery finds the question. Forecasting scores it.
NextConsensus separates proposition selection from proposition scoring. Discovery operates at rungs 1–4; Authority-Transition Forecasting operates at rungs 5–7. A transition surfaced by Discovery carries the rung it has reached and the rung it is moving toward — not a probability of the action itself. That estimate is a separate, registered forecast.
Observes evidence emergence, replication, expert recognition, and real-world confirmation. Surfaces transitions where the evidence is moving toward a resolvable rung 5–7 action — the right question to register, rather than a question you already know.
Once a transition is selected, forecasting assigns a probability and horizon to it. Discovery supplies the proposition; forecasting scores it. The two are separate products with separate evaluation criteria.
What Discovery reads
The four upstream states, observed from the public record.
Discovery reads the same public evidence the forecast later freezes — trial registries, publications, guideline drafts, advisory committee materials, conference proceedings. Each state is timestamped and source-traced. Nothing is inferred from private information.
New trial results, safety signals, subgroup analyses entering the public record.
Confirmatory data, meta-analytic convergence, and effect-size stability across cohorts.
KOL convergence, review-literature consensus shifts, conference narrative change.
RWE publication, field-level interpretation shifts, observable procedural signals.
Read the full ladder, including observable signals and validation criteria for each rung, in the Evidence-to-Action Ladder reference.
Where it stands today
Discovery is in development — the feed reads zero.
No transitions are under active watch yet. The Evidence Change Feed records guideline, regulatory, and payer evidence changes after they occur and is the retrospective input Discovery learns from. Surfaced transitions will appear here as the discovery function comes online, each labeled with the rung it has reached and the rung it is moving toward. Discovery does not assign a probability — that requires a registered forecast.
Residual opacity is part of the object: some institutional timing depends on information that is not in the public record. Discovery estimates how much of the upstream movement is resolvable from public evidence and states what it cannot see. See the abstention conditions.