A registered forecast and the dated evidence it was built from
See a registered forecast, its source evidence, subsequent updates, and historical reconstructions. A single-claim evaluation delivers the same pair for your asset: a dated evidence baseline and a probability registered before your date.
A registered forecast
The probability, published before the outcome
For some claims we publish the probability that a regulator, guideline body, or payer changes its position by a set date. This is one, as the registry holds it.
The terms set at registration
Each forecast names who decides, the action, the deadline, the evidence cutoff, and the public document used to resolve the outcome. These are the terms of the record above.
- Proposition
- A version of the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer carrying a version date on or before 2027-07-31 lists sunvozertinib (ZEGFROVY) as a first-line / initial systemic therapy option, at any NCCN category, for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive metastatic non-squamous NSCLC.
- Who decides
- National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) · Rung 5: Guideline action
- Deadline
- 2027-07-31 · an action dated from 2026-08-01 counts
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-07-31 · nothing dated after this counts toward the estimate
- Resolution source
- NCCN NSCLC guideline — initial systemic therapy algorithm and tables for EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive disease, latest version dated on or before 2027-07-31
- Built from
- 6 public sources archived at the cutoff, each with its retrieval date and digest. The sources, the rule, and the reasoning
The evidence baseline
A claim history, dated and sourced
Each entry carries the source’s publication date and an archived copy. The forecast above was estimated from this record.
- Sunvozertinib, first line, EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC
First-line use of sunvozertinib in EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive NSCLC: the trial readout, its publication, regulatory filings and designations, and the guideline position, each as the institution or its recorder stated it.
Observation only: dated, sourced, and hash-chained. Phase 0, 2026-09-06.
The change feed
What changed in the evidence
When a guideline body, a regulator, or a payer next acts on an asset we keep a record for, the action goes on the evidence change feed, dated and sourced.
Reconstructions
The same method, run over the historical record
Claim histories rebuilt from public revision history for cases that have already played out.
- Semaglutide: from high-risk comorbidity settings to general obesity weight management
The indication has widened from the high-risk diabetic and cardiovascular populations the pivotal trials studied to general weight management. The evidence that carried the first claim does not carry the second in the same way, and a payer or guideline body deciding on the wider population will ask about the gap.
Oncology decision timing
Read a subject dossier connecting the observed evidence, registered guideline and label questions, and the consequences of earlier or later action for each team.
First-line oncology decision dossier