Examples
One of each thing we deliver.
A claim history is the deliverable. A registered forecast is the number we sometimes attach to one. A reconstruction is the same method run over the historical record. One of each is published below, so you can see the shape before commissioning one.
The deliverable
A claim history, dated and sourced.
Every act the deciding institutions have put on the record about one asset, each dated to the day its source carries, tied to an archived copy by its digest, and chained so an edit anywhere shows. Nothing on it is estimated.
- Sunvozertinib, first line, EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC
First-line use of sunvozertinib in EGFR exon 20 insertion mutation-positive NSCLC: the trial readout, its publication, regulatory filings and designations, and the guideline position, each as the institution or its recorder stated it.
· Phase 0 · observation only · dated, sourced, hash-chained · 2026-09-06
A registered forecast
The number, frozen before the outcome.
For some claims we publish the probability that a named body changes its position by a set date. Each one is registered with its hash before the outcome is known and scored afterwards by an independent adjudicator. This is the record as it stands in the ledger.
Reconstructions
The same method, run over the historical record.
Claim histories rebuilt from public revision history for cases that have already played out, with the evidence cutoff enforced so that nothing after it leaks in. Each carries its own publication limits.
- Semaglutide: from high-risk comorbidity settings to general obesity weight management
The same molecule is now being promoted in a broader population than the pivotal trials primarily studied. The move from high-risk diabetic or cardiovascular settings to general weight-management settings changes the strength of the supporting evidence and the review action.
- GLP-1 receptor agonist claim history: diabetes to obesity indication
Reconstructed from 22 public encyclopedia revisions. Three claim families emerged: diabetes/family-history indication, obesity/weight-management indication, and a disputed pathway.
- Liraglutide claim history: single-drug provenance reconstruction
Reconstructed from 20 public encyclopedia revisions. Twenty-two stable claim families emerged; two-analyst reproducibility validation is pending.
A worked specification
Example Forecast Specification.
What a forecast looks like before it is registered: the proposition, the authority, the evidence cutoff, the baselines it has to beat and the rule that settles it, worked through for one coverage decision. A specification, not a deliverable.