Registered forecast
35% registered probability event by 2026-11-25 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Intrathecal onasemnogene abeparvovec for treating spinal muscular atrophy in people 2 years and over [ID6556] on or before 2026-11-25
FF-048 Registered - Registered probability
- 35%
- Event by
- 2026-11-25
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2026-11-25
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 55%
- Analyst proxy 35%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-048/ registry snapshot 2026-10-15 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-15. It is one of 22 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Intrathecal onasemnogene abeparvovec for treating spinal muscular atrophy in people 2 years and over' [ID6556], with a publication date on or before 2026-11-25, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11733) on 2026-10-01.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee C (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Spinal muscular atrophy in people 2 years and over (intrathecal)
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a second committee meeting on 6 October, 50 days before the expected date, is treated as on schedule: the model assumes final draft guidance and an appeal period fit in that time.
An analyst reading the project page on 2026-10-01 would see negative draft guidance that gives an evidence reason, that there is not enough evidence to determine benefit in this population, and would weigh whether the company can answer it at the second meeting. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-10-15
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-10-15
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2026-11-25
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-25
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
1c0eae273bc6b82f713fbd6719cd297f5258c7a10c8f6559bd0aa7eef528c792 · operator record jc-1792036498691-cb762f38
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6556 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-25, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6556. Searching for GID-TA11733 finds the same project. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-25, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-25, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. A suspension, however NICE words it, resolves NO. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. A removal that NICE describes as temporary, or after which the appraisal resumes, is a suspension. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-12-02. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11733, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 35% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-15.
- review pathway
- STA by Technology Appraisal Committee C (SRC-001, SRC-003)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK (SRC-001)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- Comparator companies: Biogen (nusinersen) - participating; Roche (risdiplam) - participating; Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK (onasemnogene abeparvovec [intravenous infusion]) - not participating (SRC-001)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting 1: 07 July 2026; draft guidance 29 July - 19 August 2026; committee meeting 2 scheduled 06 October 2026, 50 days before the expected publication date of 25 November 2026 (SRC-001, SRC-003, SRC-005).
- sponsor request status
- No company request for more time or pause is recorded in the archived sources.
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- None recorded in the archived sources.
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-15 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page (Project information tab) for GID-TA11733. Shows 'Expected publication date: 25 November 2026', status 'In progress', 'Process: STA Standard', provisional schedule (committee meeting 2: 06 October 2026; expected publication 25 November 2026), comparator companies and the timeline (committee meeting 1 on 07 July 2026; draft guidance 29 July - 19 August 2026). -
SRC-002NICE Project documents tab for GID-TA11733. Latest documents: draft guidance and committee papers 'Published: 29 July 2026'; register of interests 'Published: 14 September 2026'. -
SRC-003Draft guidance consultation PDF (issue date July 2026). Recommendation 1.1 (should not be used), key dates (closing date for comments 19th August 2026; second evaluation committee meeting 6th October 2026) and 'This topic was considered by committee C.' -
SRC-004Confirmed minutes of NICE Technology Appraisal Committee C, Tuesday 7 July 2026 (Word). Records the appraisal of intrathecal onasemnogene abeparvovec [ID6556] with company Novartis Pharmaceuticals and a discussion of the evidence. -
SRC-005NICE Technology appraisal committees page. Lists next meeting dates including Committee C 'Tuesday 06 October 2026', 'Tuesday 03 November 2026' and 'Tuesday 01 December 2026'.