Registered forecast
50% registered probability event by 2026-11-18 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Pembrolizumab with chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for treating platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer after 1 or 2 treatments [ID6363] on or before 2026-11-18
FF-021 Registered - Registered probability
- 50%
- Event by
- 2026-11-18
- Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 60%
- Analyst proxy 50%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-021/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-09-26. It is one of 11 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Pembrolizumab with chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for treating platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer after 1 or 2 treatments' [ID6363], with a publication date on or before 2026-11-18, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11422) on 2026-09-24.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown about eight weeks earlier is not yet counted (docs/foundations/short-horizon-reference-classes.md §4.6 names it as the census the calendar builds). Expected dates are revised often, especially when a first committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation.
A clock-only model: NICE sets a provisional publication date a few weeks after a committee meeting that assumes the meeting reaches a final recommendation. A second committee meeting more often reaches a final recommendation than a first, and nine weeks from the second meeting to expected publication is on schedule if it was final.
A market-access analyst reading the same project page and draft guidance on 2026-09-24 would weigh the second meeting, held on schedule, against the negative draft and the size of the cost-effectiveness gap. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-09-26
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-09-26
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-18
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
80d14b258192d4b4d16dabc0f47be5dc510901f559ce701020f11b39224e5e22 · operator record jc-1790461082310-50e7fe60
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6363 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-18, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6363. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-18, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-18, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-11-25. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11422, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 50% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-09-26.
- review pathway
- single technology appraisal (STA), standard
- submission type
- new technology appraisal
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- usual treatment named in the draft guidance: paclitaxel or pegylated liposomal doxorubicin, with mirvetuximab soravtansine an option for folate receptor-alpha-positive cancer (SRC-002)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- second committee meeting 15 September 2026, after draft guidance consultation 4 to 25 August 2026 (SRC-001)
- sponsor request status
- none recorded since the invitation to participate on 1 December 2025; a note added to the project documents on 5 July 2024 predates it, and its text is not archived (SRC-001)
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- none recorded in the archived sources
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-09-26 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page for ID6363 (GID-TA11422), pembrolizumab with chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer after 1 or 2 treatments, retrieved at the cutoff. Fixes the expected publication date the proposition freezes (18 November 2026), status In progress, process STA Standard, and the timeline: invitation to participate 1 December 2025, committee meeting 1 on 14 July 2026, draft guidance 4 to 25 August 2026, committee meeting 2 on 15 September 2026, no final draft guidance entry, and a note added to the project documents on 5 July 2024 (its text is not on this page). -
SRC-002NICE draft guidance consultation document for ID6363 (PDF linked from the project documents; issue date July 2026). Section 1 says pembrolizumab plus paclitaxel, with or without bevacizumab, should not be used for this population; the key dates give comments closing 25 August 2026 and the second committee meeting on 15 September 2026; after consultation the committee prepares final draft guidance, subject to any appeal; section 2.1 states the marketing authorisation indication (Keytruda, MSD); section 3.15 says the cost-effectiveness estimates were considerably higher than the range normally considered acceptable. -
SRC-003NICE technology appraisal committee A, 15 September 2026, final agenda. Lists this appraisal [ID6363] for its second meeting, with ID6425 (inavolisib, CAL-NICE-006) and ID6325 on the same agenda.