Registered forecast
5% registered probability event by 2026-11-18 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Orforglipron for managing overweight and obesity [ID6516] on or before 2026-11-18
FF-020 Registered - Registered probability
- 5%
- Event by
- 2026-11-18
- Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 25%
- Analyst proxy 10%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-020/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-09-26. It is one of 11 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Orforglipron for managing overweight and obesity' [ID6516], with a publication date on or before 2026-11-18, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11650) on 2026-09-24.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Overweight and obesity management
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown about eight weeks earlier is not yet counted (docs/foundations/short-horizon-reference-classes.md §4.6 names it as the census the calendar builds). Expected dates are revised often, especially when a first committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation.
A clock-only model: NICE sets a provisional publication date a few weeks after a committee meeting that assumes the meeting reaches a final recommendation. Eighteen weeks from the only meeting to the expected date would be ample if that meeting had been final, but ten weeks after it the timeline shows no draft or final draft guidance and no further meeting, which a clock reads as off schedule.
A market-access analyst reading the same project page and the 5 August note on 2026-09-24 would read a further meeting not yet scheduled as a slip, and would weigh the status of the marketing authorisation. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-09-26
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-09-26
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-18
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
4fe0cbed9b8443dea2133c8f88dd3c452aac74eeec41fe93439f55fabfe997fd · operator record jc-1790461082304-acec9f66
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6516 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-18, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6516. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-18, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-18, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-11-25. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11650, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 5% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-09-26.
- review pathway
- single technology appraisal (STA), standard
- submission type
- new technology appraisal
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- comparators in the final scope: tirzepatide (TA1026), semaglutide (TA875), liraglutide (TA664), prescription-dose orlistat, and standard management (SRC-003)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- one committee meeting, 14 July 2026, without a full conclusion; a further meeting is to follow and none is listed at the cutoff (SRC-001, SRC-002)
- sponsor request status
- none recorded; the committee will ask the company for additional evidence (SRC-002)
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- no UK marketing authorisation for this use at the December 2025 final scope (SRC-003); status at the cutoff unverified
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-09-26 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page for ID6516 (GID-TA11650), orforglipron for managing overweight and obesity, retrieved at the cutoff. Fixes the expected publication date the proposition freezes (18 November 2026), status In progress, process STA Standard, the suggested remit 'within its marketing authorisation' (the page does not say whether one has been granted), and the timeline: invitation to participate 1 December 2025, one committee meeting on 14 July 2026, a Topic Update note added on 5 August 2026, no draft or final draft guidance entry and no further committee meeting listed. -
SRC-002NICE Topic Update note for ID6516, linked from the project documents and dated 5 August 2026 in the SRC-001 timeline. Says the committee discussed the appraisal on Tuesday 14 July 2026 but was unable to reach a full conclusion because more information is needed from the company; the company will be asked to submit additional evidence, which the committee will discuss at a further committee meeting. -
SRC-003NICE final scope for ID6516 (PDF, issue date December 2025, published 1 December 2025). States that orforglipron (Eli Lilly) does not have a marketing authorisation in the UK for managing overweight and obesity, and that guidance will only be issued in accordance with the marketing authorisation. Says nothing about the authorisation's status after December 2025.