Registered forecast
55% registered probability event by 2026-11-18 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Larotrectinib for treating NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumours (MA review of TA630) [ID6292] on or before 2026-11-18
FF-018 Registered - Registered probability
- 55%
- Event by
- 2026-11-18
- Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 60%
- Analyst proxy 50%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-018/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-09-26. It is one of 11 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Larotrectinib for treating NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumours (MA review of TA630)' [ID6292], the new guidance this managed access review produces and not TA630 itself, with a publication date on or before 2026-11-18, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11565) on 2026-09-24.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumours (MA review)
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown about eight weeks earlier is not yet counted (docs/foundations/short-horizon-reference-classes.md §4.6 names it as the census the calendar builds). Expected dates are revised often, especially when a first committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation.
A clock-only model: NICE sets a provisional publication date a few weeks after a committee meeting that assumes the meeting reaches a final recommendation. A second committee meeting more often reaches a final recommendation than a first, and ten weeks from the second meeting to expected publication is on schedule if it was final.
A market-access analyst reading the same project page and draft guidance on 2026-09-24 would weigh the second meeting against the negative draft and the appeal risk of a managed access review. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-09-26
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-09-26
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-18
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
735f8ef595baeaab7844eb785692fe6d897f514e5ab3ec702c5fbe5eede0a5d9 · operator record jc-1790461082298-14d0cc7a
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6292 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-18, whatever the guidance recommends. That page is the new guidance this managed access review produces, not TA630: TA630's own publication date never counts. If NICE instead publishes the review's final guidance as an update to the TA630 page, the date that page gives for that update (its 'Last updated' date, with an update entry naming this review or ID6292) is the publication date, and TA630's original publication date still does not count. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6292. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-18, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-18, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-11-25. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11565, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta630
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 55% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-09-26.
- review pathway
- single technology appraisal (STA), standard
- submission type
- managed access review of an existing technology appraisal (TA630) (SRC-001, SRC-002)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- none named: the page lists comparator companies as None (SRC-001), and the draft guidance says there is no standard treatment for NTRK fusion-positive solid tumours (SRC-002)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- second committee meeting 9 September 2026, after draft guidance consultation 1 to 24 April 2026 (SRC-001)
- sponsor request status
- a note of 13 June 2024 says further information on timelines would follow advice received from the company (SRC-001); none recorded since
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- none recorded in the archived sources
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-09-26 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page for ID6292 (GID-TA11565), larotrectinib for treating NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumours, managed access review of TA630, retrieved at the cutoff. Fixes the expected publication date the proposition freezes (18 November 2026), status In progress, process STA Standard, company Bayer, and the timeline: committee meeting 1 on 4 March 2026, draft guidance 1 to 24 April 2026, committee meeting 2 on 9 September 2026, no final draft guidance entry, and a note of 13 June 2024 that further information on timelines would follow advice received from the company. -
SRC-002NICE draft guidance consultation document for ID6292 (PDF linked from the project documents, published 1 April 2026). Section 1 does not recommend larotrectinib; it reviews TA630 and the evidence collected during the managed access period; the key dates give the second committee meeting as TBC; after consultation the committee prepares final draft guidance, subject to any appeal; section 2.1 states the marketing authorisation indication (Vitrakvi, Bayer). -
SRC-003NICE technology appraisal committee D, 9 September 2026, draft agenda. Lists this appraisal [ID6292] with ID6474 (cabozantinib, not a Q4 calendar row).