Registered forecast

55% registered probability event by 2026-11-28 Unresolved

FDA approves D-PLEX100 (extended-release doxycycline) for prevention of surgical site infections in colorectal surgery on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-28

FF-024 Registered Unresolved
Registered probability
55%
Event by
2026-11-28
Resolution window
2026-10-07 → 2026-11-28
Target rung
  1. 5 Guideline
  2. 6 Regulatory
  3. 7 Coverage
Baselines it has to beat
  • Authority base rate 85%
  • Calendar cycle 80%
  • Analyst proxy 55%

nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-024/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image

NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-06. It is one of 14 registered FDA goal-date forecasts.

The proposition

What was claimed

The FDA takes an approval action on PolyPid's New Drug Application for D-PLEX100 (doxycycline in an extended-release polymer-lipid matrix) for the prevention of surgical site infections in patients undergoing abdominal colorectal surgery, with an approval action date on or before 2026-11-28, the PDUFA goal date disclosed in Exhibit 99.1 to PolyPid's Form 6-K furnished 2026-08-12.
Authority
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) (US)
Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
Rung 6: Regulatory action — Label/indication change, approval action, REMS modification, or withdrawal by FDA, EMA, PMDA, Health Canada, etc.
Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
FDA action by goal date
Scope
Prevention of surgical site infections in abdominal colorectal surgery

The estimate

The number and the baselines it has to beat

55% probability, method v0.1.0 · frozen at the 2026-10-06 cutoff

The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.

Authority base rate 85%

ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. Applications built on positive randomized controlled trials are approved at their first goal date in a large majority of cases. The calendar's own met-goal-date share for disclosed PDUFA dates does not exist yet.

Calendar cycle 80%

A clock-only model: the goal date is inside the window, FDA meets most goal dates, and most first-cycle actions on applications like this are approvals. With no evidence input it cannot tell a strong application from a weak one.

Analyst proxy 55%

An analyst reading the same filings on 2026-10-01 would weigh priority review, Breakthrough designation and a positive phase 3, against a single pivotal trial with a mid-study protocol change, the sponsor's own warning that FDA may not accept its 505(b)(2) route, a going-concern statement and a first-time applicant's manufacturing. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.

Regulatory action (FDA): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.

The clock

Dates that constrain the record

Evidence cutoff
2026-10-06
Nothing after this date informed the estimate.
Registered
2026-10-06
Frozen and hashed.
Resolution window
2026-10-07 → 2026-11-28
When the adjudicator can read the outcome.
Event by
2026-11-28
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar

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ledger 78267586fe018127a09ef07cd55d477d78dbace1df7d6bdad0b43c4e4704ac9e · operator record jc-1791309827457-ff8e2936

Around this record

Single-claim evaluation

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Resolution

The rule that settles the forecast

Doxycycline is marketed under many applications, so this one is identified by holder and indication. At the cutoff openFDA listed no PolyPid application (SRC-007, SRC-008). Resolves YES if the openFDA Drugs@FDA records returned by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=sponsor_name:POLYPID*&limit=100 and by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=sponsor_name:AZURITY*&limit=100, read together, contain an NDA held by PolyPid, or by Azurity or another holder to which PolyPid has assigned it (SRC-004), whose ORIG submission has submission_status AP and a submission_status_date on or before 2026-11-28, and whose Drugs@FDA approval letter or label indicates the product for preventing or reducing surgical site infections. An approval for a narrower surgical population than the applicant sought still resolves YES. Resolves NO if no approval action is dated on or before 2026-11-28: a complete response letter, a goal-date extension, withdrawal or no action. The goal date is frozen as disclosed at the cutoff; a later extension does not move it, and an approval dated after 2026-11-28 resolves NO as occurred_after_deadline. 2026-11-28 is a Saturday; an approval action dated that day still counts. Read no earlier than 2026-12-12. If openFDA has not refreshed by then, the Drugs@FDA web record (https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/, searched by PolyPid, Azurity or D-PLEX) governs, under the same holder and indication test. Resolves unresolvable only if none of these sources can be read after the read floor. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if FDA withdraws every public record of approval actions named above without an equivalent public successor, so that no approval date for this product can be read; while any of them publishes it, the rule stands.

Source the rule names: https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=sponsor_name:POLYPID*&limit=100, https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=sponsor_name:AZURITY*&limit=100, https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/

Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.

What this record will show once it resolves

Beside every result, the count for its class (FDA action by goal date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.

The finding
As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
The readers and their sources
Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
The number against its baselines
55% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.

Reasoning

What the number rests on

The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.

Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff

The state of the record at the cutoff

Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-06, including the one field whose value was unknown then. It is left unknown rather than filled in.

review pathway
priority review (SRC-001, SRC-002); Breakthrough Therapy Designation (SRC-002); Fast Track and rolling submission (SRC-006)
submission type
original NDA; company intends Section 505(b)(2) (SRC-006)
evidence class
one pivotal randomized Phase 3 trial, SHIELD II, D-PLEX100 plus standard of care vs standard of care alone (SRC-006)
pivotal n
405 (D-PLEX100 + SoC) vs 393 (SoC) in the primary-endpoint analysis; 975 patients with incision >=7 cm in the overall population used for the second key secondary endpoint (SRC-006)
endpoint type
composite primary endpoint of deep and superficial SSI, all-cause mortality and reintervention at the index incision: 10.9% vs 18.1%, 40% reduction, p<0.005 (SRC-006)
approved competitors in class
unknown — not stated in the archived sources
months since last guideline revision
not applicable — no guideline is the subject of this proposition
panel cycle position
not applicable — the act is an FDA approval action
sponsor request status
NDA submission completed (rolling); FDA accepted it on July 27, 2026 with Priority Review and identified no filing review issues (SRC-001)
odac referral
none announced in the archived sources
sponsor state change
exclusive US/Canada license and supply agreement with Azurity effective July 17, 2026; PolyPid must assign the approved NDA to Azurity after approval (SRC-003, SRC-004)

Sources

Everything the estimate was built from

Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-06 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.

  1. SRC-001 PolyPid Ltd. Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 (Q2 2026 corporate update and results press release), furnished 2026-08-12 (latest PolyPid filing before cutoff). States that on July 27, 2026 FDA accepted the D-PLEX100 NDA with Priority Review and a PDUFA goal date of November 28, 2026, that FDA identified no filing review issues, and that cash plus Azurity proceeds are expected to fund operations into 2028.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026088040/ea030152801ex99-1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 d60e47844378a63ecc2acfce6b2fe5d727c95675f39c9ec08f8e8adcb8d0687a

  2. SRC-002 PolyPid Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 furnished 2026-07-29: press release 'PolyPid Announces FDA Acceptance of NDA with Priority Review for D-PLEX100'. States the PDUFA target action date of November 28, 2026 (about one quarter ahead of prior Q1 2027 guidance), no filing review issues, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, and SHIELD II results.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026082564/ea029964201ex99-1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 0a6eebd916671c1829e22973c19e140fb100954563df720383e053e044936d83

  3. SRC-003 PolyPid Form 6-K furnished 2026-07-21 (cover report). States that on July 17, 2026 PolyPid entered a License and Supply Agreement granting Azurity Pharmaceuticals Ireland Ltd. exclusive rights to commercialize D-PLEX100 in the US and Canada, with a $15 million milestone payable on FDA acceptance of the NDA.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026079808/ea0298559-6k_polypid.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 0fb6dd6c06a9b0ec257f53311ac2d78f46888cb171ca99e50949ba5e16c91612

  4. SRC-004 PolyPid Form 6-K Exhibit 10.1 (License and Supply Agreement with Azurity, dated July 17, 2026; redacted), furnished 2026-07-21. Section 3.02(a): PolyPid submits the NDA and shall assign the approved Product NDA to Azurity after final approval.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026079808/ea029855901ex10-1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 18d69a3e30f813036853daa06d6c91d9a15c10819f68daf85ac92a618665d8e8

  5. SRC-005 PolyPid Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 (interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2026), furnished 2026-08-12. Note 1c states that these factors raise a substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026088439/ea030023101ex99-1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 91b8b0d5894504d47790403b2afc7ea3ac911c27ed66158ac401096a01900954

  6. SRC-006 PolyPid Form 20-F for fiscal 2025, filed 2026-02-25. Gives SHIELD II design and results (D-PLEX100 + SoC n=405 vs SoC n=393; primary endpoint 10.9% vs 18.1%, a 40% reduction, p<0.005), the intent to use the Section 505(b)(2) pathway, and plans to submit the NDA on a rolling basis using Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy designations.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611842/000121390026020370/ea0276727-20f_polypid.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 784cec58a6d079bdd6ba7bcf8a2f030e50f82411eb6e843fa65d44ca40eb9cca

  7. SRC-007 openFDA drugsfda API response for sponsor_name POLYPID* (prefix search), retrieved 2026-10-01: 404 NOT_FOUND 'No matches found!' (no PolyPid application in Drugs@FDA data).

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=sponsor_name:POLYPID*

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da

  8. SRC-008 openFDA drugsfda API response for brand name 'D-PLEX100', retrieved 2026-10-01: 404 NOT_FOUND 'No matches found!'.

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.brand_name:%22D-PLEX100%22

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da