Registered forecast

85% registered probability event by 2026-11-30 Unresolved

FDA approves bezuclastinib with sunitinib for gastrointestinal stromal tumor after imatinib on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-11-30

FF-023 Registered Unresolved
Registered probability
85%
Event by
2026-11-30
Resolution window
2026-10-07 → 2026-11-30
Target rung
  1. 5 Guideline
  2. 6 Regulatory
  3. 7 Coverage
Baselines it has to beat
  • Authority base rate 85%
  • Calendar cycle 80%
  • Analyst proxy 85%

nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-023/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image

NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-06. It is one of 14 registered FDA goal-date forecasts.

The proposition

What was claimed

The FDA takes an approval action on Cogent Biosciences' New Drug Application for bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for the treatment of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor who have received prior treatment with imatinib, with an approval action date on or before 2026-11-30, the PDUFA target action date disclosed in Cogent Biosciences' Form 10-Q filed 2026-08-10.
Authority
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) (US)
Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
Rung 6: Regulatory action — Label/indication change, approval action, REMS modification, or withdrawal by FDA, EMA, PMDA, Health Canada, etc.
Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
FDA action by goal date
Scope
GIST after imatinib, in combination with sunitinib

The estimate

The number and the baselines it has to beat

85% probability, method v0.1.0 · frozen at the 2026-10-06 cutoff

The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.

Authority base rate 85%

ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. Applications built on positive randomized controlled trials are approved at their first goal date in a large majority of cases. The calendar's own met-goal-date share for disclosed PDUFA dates does not exist yet.

Calendar cycle 80%

A clock-only model: the goal date is inside the window, FDA meets most goal dates, and most first-cycle actions on applications like this are approvals. With no evidence input it cannot tell a strong application from a weak one.

Analyst proxy 85%

An oncology analyst reading the same filings on 2026-10-01 would weigh priority review under Real-Time Oncology Review, Breakthrough designation and a randomized phase 3 that halved the hazard of progression, against immature overall survival and added liver toxicity. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.

Regulatory action (FDA): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.

The clock

Dates that constrain the record

Evidence cutoff
2026-10-06
Nothing after this date informed the estimate.
Registered
2026-10-06
Frozen and hashed.
Resolution window
2026-10-07 → 2026-11-30
When the adjudicator can read the outcome.
Event by
2026-11-30
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar

7F
ledger 7fa4097d054e825b3e0895600217f1b711f8a49430c6b2980b9d0233e9cd659a · operator record jc-1791309827087-bd33806e

Around this record

Single-claim evaluation

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Resolution

The rule that settles the forecast

Cogent has separate bezuclastinib applications for systemic mastocytosis (SRC-001); an approval for mastocytosis does not count. Resolves YES if the openFDA Drugs@FDA records returned by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22bezuclastinib%22&limit=100 and by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22BEZUCLASTINIB%22&limit=100, read together (openFDA does not always fill the generic-name field for a second application), contain a submission, original or supplement, with submission_status AP and a submission_status_date on or before 2026-11-30, and the Drugs@FDA approval letter or label for that submission names gastrointestinal stromal tumor in its indication. An approval for a narrower GIST population than the applicant sought still resolves YES. Resolves NO if no approval action is dated on or before 2026-11-30: a complete response letter, a goal-date extension, withdrawal or no action. The goal date is frozen as disclosed at the cutoff; a later extension does not move it, and an approval dated after 2026-11-30 resolves NO as occurred_after_deadline. Read no earlier than 2026-12-14. If openFDA has not refreshed by then, the Drugs@FDA web record (https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/, searched by the name bezuclastinib) governs. Resolves unresolvable only if none of these sources can be read after the read floor. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if FDA withdraws every public record of approval actions named above without an equivalent public successor, so that no approval date for this product can be read; while any of them publishes it, the rule stands.

Source the rule names: https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22bezuclastinib%22&limit=100, https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22BEZUCLASTINIB%22&limit=100, https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/

Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.

What this record will show once it resolves

Beside every result, the count for its class (FDA action by goal date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.

The finding
As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
The readers and their sources
Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
The number against its baselines
85% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.

Reasoning

What the number rests on

The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.

Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff

The state of the record at the cutoff

Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-06.

review pathway
priority review; Real-Time Oncology Review (RTOR); Breakthrough Therapy Designation (January 2026) (SRC-001)
submission type
original NDA (SRC-001)
evidence class
one randomized, open-label, global Phase 3 trial (PEAK) of bezuclastinib + sunitinib vs sunitinib alone (SRC-001, SRC-003)
pivotal n
204 (bezuclastinib + sunitinib) vs 209 (sunitinib) randomized 1:1 (SRC-004)
endpoint type
progression-free survival by blinded independent central review: median 16.5 vs 9.2 months, HR 0.50 (95% CI 0.39–0.65); overall survival immature at the top-line analysis (SRC-003)
approved competitors in class
sunitinib monotherapy is the current second-line therapy for most patients (SRC-001); the PEAK deck benchmarks the approved agents imatinib, sunitinib, regorafenib and ripretinib from their labels (SRC-004)
months since last guideline revision
not applicable — no guideline is the subject of this proposition
panel cycle position
not applicable — the act is an FDA approval action
sponsor request status
NDA submitted March 2026 under RTOR; accepted with Priority Review May 2026 (SRC-001)
odac referral
none announced in the archived sources
sponsor state change
none recorded; commercial supply agreement with Hovione signed September 1, 2026 (SRC-005)

Sources

Everything the estimate was built from

Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-06 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.

  1. SRC-001 Cogent Biosciences, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed 2026-08-10 (latest filing found that states the date). States that the GIST NDA for bezuclastinib plus sunitinib was submitted in March 2026 under RTOR, accepted with Priority Review in May 2026, with a PDUFA target action date of November 30, 2026; Breakthrough Therapy Designation in January 2026; PEAK results; and a separate NonAdvSM NDA with a PDUFA date of December 30, 2026.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622229/000119312526342393/cogt-20260630.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 0cad67b994f18f1f4566e7b6e9d299584e8d127f092019c3a8c60d2b470bc2d3

  2. SRC-002 Cogent Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (Q2 2026 results press release), filed 2026-08-10. Headline: potential approval of bezuclastinib for GIST patients (PDUFA November 30) and NonAdvSM patients (PDUFA December 30); lists 'Potential FDA approval of bezuclastinib in GIST – PDUFA date of November 30, 2026'.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622229/000119312526341315/cogt-ex99_1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 b6f61d423831a083e76308a4f061f380cdee7726161949ca0c217bde11ad9882

  3. SRC-003 Cogent Form 8-K filed 2025-11-10 (Item 8.01) reporting PEAK Phase 3 top-line results: PFS HR 0.50 (95% CI 0.39–0.65), median PFS 16.5 vs 9.2 months by blinded independent central review, ORR 46% vs 26%, overall survival immature, and Grade 3+ adverse event rates.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622229/000119312525273315/d54064d8k.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 d26ccb857f5dfe2a0e7d4b8d4cd494c53a05bbb94e89158d896e31b182273838

  4. SRC-004 Cogent Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (PEAK top-line investor presentation), filed 2025-11-10. Gives randomization (bezuclastinib + sunitinib n=204; sunitinib n=209) and benchmarks for approved GIST agents.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622229/000119312525273315/d54064dex991.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 d31f164cf90f0401c19110eaf0845f0a00fe5eb0c6e09cf9940085e5ffbc3250

  5. SRC-005 Cogent Form 8-K filed 2026-09-02 (latest Cogent filing before cutoff), Item 1.01: Commercial Supply Agreement with Hovione FarmaCiencia S.A. to manufacture bezuclastinib spray-dried dispersion and tablets. Reports no change to the review.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1622229/000119312526380194/d184156d8k.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 bfd0128cf4afa7c90d9da1327efcc6a68571fff2e6fdbe9b1fde8070ca4e15c0

  6. SRC-006 openFDA drugsfda API response for generic name 'bezuclastinib', retrieved 2026-10-01: 404 NOT_FOUND 'No matches found!'.

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22bezuclastinib%22

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da