Registered forecast
40% registered probability event by 2027-01-13 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Toripalimab with chemotherapy for untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer [ID6406] on or before 2027-01-13
FF-042 Registered - Registered probability
- 40%
- Event by
- 2027-01-13
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2027-01-13
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 55%
- Analyst proxy 40%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-042/ registry snapshot 2026-10-15 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-15. It is one of 22 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Toripalimab with chemotherapy for untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer' [ID6406], with a publication date on or before 2027-01-13, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11341) on 2026-10-01.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee D (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a second committee meeting on 4 November, 70 days before the expected date, is treated as on schedule: the model assumes final draft guidance and an appeal period fit in that time.
An analyst reading the project page on 2026-10-01 would weigh negative draft guidance and the company's earlier timeline changes. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-10-15
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-10-15
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2027-01-13
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2027-01-13
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
4b9f547e41c686454406c0b42587ad96ffae36e5fb558f2f4593b2c7c97f13d9 · operator record jc-1792036251160-f7e7886d
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6406 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2027-01-13, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6406. Searching for GID-TA11341 finds the same project. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2027-01-13, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2027-01-13, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. A suspension, however NICE words it, resolves NO. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. A removal that NICE describes as temporary, or after which the appraisal resumes, is a suspension. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2027-01-20. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11341, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 40% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-15.
- review pathway
- STA Standard ("Process: STA Standard", SRC-001)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company "Leo Pharma (Toripalimab)" (SRC-001)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- Comparator companies on SRC-001 are chemotherapy suppliers only (Amarox, Bristol Myers Squibb, Dr Reddys, Genus, Glenmark, Hospira UK, Medac, Sandoz, Seacross, Sun, Synchrony and Teva, for cisplatin, capecitabine, paclitaxel, gemcitabine, fluorouracil and docetaxel), all listed as "confidentiality agreement not signed, not participating". No same-class immunotherapy competitor is named.
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting 1 was held on 5 August 2026. The draft guidance consultation ran from 27 August to 18 September 2026. Committee meeting 2 is on 4 November 2026, 70 days before the expected publication date of 13 January 2027 (SRC-001; SRC-003).
- sponsor request status
- The 11 April 2024 entry says that "following on from advice received from the company, further information regarding the timelines for this appraisal will be available in due course". The 29 July 2025 entry says the appraisal "has been scheduled back into the work programme" following advice from the company (SRC-001). No request is recorded in 2026.
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- Scheduled back into the work programme on 29 July 2025, after the 11 April 2024 entry left the timelines to be confirmed (SRC-001).
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-15 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development "Project information" page for ID6406. Shows the header line "Expected publication date: 13 January 2027", status, process, ID number, the provisional schedule, the enquiry e-mail address, stakeholders (where listed) and the "Timeline" table of key events. -
SRC-002NICE "Project documents" tab for ID6406: lists documents by stage with publication dates (scope, stakeholder list, draft guidance where issued, committee meeting entries) and the text of notes added to the project documents. -
SRC-003NICE "Draft guidance: 1" consultation page for ID6406: "Closing date for comments: 5pm, 18 September 2026" and "After the consultation has closed the appraisal committee will meet again to consider the responses received and prepare the final draft guidance." -
SRC-004Draft guidance (downloadable PDF, published 27 August 2026). Section 1 reads: "1.1 Toripalimab with gemcitabine and cisplatin should not be used for first-line treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in adults that is:", followed by two bullets (recurrent and not suitable for surgery or radiotherapy; or metastatic). -
SRC-005NICE "Technology appraisal committees" page (reached from the meetings-in-public URL https://www.nice.org.uk/get-involved/meetings-in-public/technology-appraisal-committee, which returned HTTP 308 to it). Under "Next meeting dates" it lists Committee D meetings including "Wednesday 07 October 2026", "Wednesday 04 November 2026" and "Wednesday 02 December 2026"; it also lists published TAC minutes. It does not list which appraisals are on each agenda. -
SRC-006Confirmed minutes (Word) of the Technology Appraisal Committee D meeting on 5 August 2026, linked from the TAC page. Includes the agenda item "Appraisal of Toripalimab with chemotherapy for untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer [ID6406]", records that the chair welcomed "company representatives from Leo Pharma", and records that "The committee then agreed on the content of the Draft Guidance (DG) or Final Draft Guidance (FDG). The committee decision was reached by consensus."