Registered forecast
30% registered probability event by 2027-01-13 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Tarlatamab for treating extensive stage small-cell lung cancer that has progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy [ID6617] on or before 2027-01-13
FF-041 Registered - Registered probability
- 30%
- Event by
- 2027-01-13
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2027-01-13
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 45%
- Analyst proxy 30%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-041/ registry snapshot 2026-10-15 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-15. It is one of 22 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Tarlatamab for treating extensive stage small-cell lung cancer that has progressed after platinum-based chemotherapy' [ID6617], with a publication date on or before 2027-01-13, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11812) on 2026-10-01.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer after platinum-based chemotherapy
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a first committee meeting on 10 November, 64 days before the expected date, is on schedule if that meeting reaches a final recommendation.
An analyst reading the project page on 2026-10-01 would note a schedule with no consultation round and expect a first meeting on an oncology medicine to reach draft guidance more often than final draft guidance. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-10-15
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-10-15
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 → 2027-01-13
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2027-01-13
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
556605b8b10aa17c3a3f2c875283c26d64b96b2ab99b50d9642e35254f0b502e · operator record jc-1792036250883-8069228b
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6617 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2027-01-13, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6617. Searching for GID-TA11812 finds the same project. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2027-01-13, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2027-01-13, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. A suspension, however NICE words it, resolves NO. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. A removal that NICE describes as temporary, or after which the appraisal resumes, is a suspension. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2027-01-20. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11812, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 30% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-15.
- review pathway
- STA Standard ("Process: STA Standard", SRC-001)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company "Amgen (tarlatamab)" (SRC-004)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- The page lists no stakeholders (SRC-001). The final stakeholder list names one possible comparator company, Sandoz (oral topotecan) (SRC-004). No same-class competitor is named.
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting 1 is on 10 November 2026, 64 days before the expected publication date of 13 January 2027. No draft guidance consultation or second meeting is listed (SRC-001).
- sponsor request status
- None recorded (SRC-001).
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- None recorded (SRC-001).
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-15 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development "Project information" page for ID6617. Shows the header line "Expected publication date: 13 January 2027", status, process, ID number, the provisional schedule, the enquiry e-mail address, stakeholders (where listed) and the "Timeline" table of key events. -
SRC-002NICE "Project documents" tab for ID6617: lists documents by stage with publication dates (scope, stakeholder list, draft guidance where issued, committee meeting entries) and the text of notes added to the project documents. -
SRC-003NICE "Technology appraisal committees" page (reached from the meetings-in-public URL https://www.nice.org.uk/get-involved/meetings-in-public/technology-appraisal-committee, which returned HTTP 308 to it). Under "Next meeting dates" it lists Committee A meetings including "Tuesday 13 October 2026", "Tuesday 10 November 2026" and "Tuesday 08 December 2026"; it also lists published TAC minutes. It does not list which appraisals are on each agenda. -
SRC-004Final stakeholder list (PDF, "Issue date: February 2026") for ID6617. Names the company "Amgen (tarlatamab)" and one "Possible comparator companies" entry: "Sandoz (oral topotecan)".