Registered forecast

75% registered probability event by 2026-12-23 Unresolved

FDA approves anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel) for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more lines on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2026-12-23

FF-030 Registered Unresolved
Registered probability
75%
Event by
2026-12-23
Resolution window
2026-10-16 → 2026-12-23
Target rung
  1. 5 Guideline
  2. 6 Regulatory
  3. 7 Coverage
Baselines it has to beat
  • Authority base rate 70%
  • Calendar cycle 65%
  • Analyst proxy 75%

nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-030/ registry snapshot 2026-10-15 Share image

NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-10-15. It is one of 26 registered FDA goal-date forecasts.

The proposition

What was claimed

The FDA takes an approval action on the Biologics License Application for anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel; applicant Arcellx, a Gilead Sciences subsidiary since April 2026) for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma in the fourth line or later, with an approval action date on or before 2026-12-23, the PDUFA target action date disclosed in Gilead Sciences' Form 10-Q filed 2026-08-06.
Authority
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) (US)
Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
Rung 6: Regulatory action — Label/indication change, approval action, REMS modification, or withdrawal by FDA, EMA, PMDA, Health Canada, etc.
Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
FDA action by goal date
Scope
Relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after 3 or more lines

The estimate

The number and the baselines it has to beat

75% probability, method v0.1.0 · frozen at the 2026-10-15 cutoff

The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.

Authority base rate 70%

ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. Applications resting on uncontrolled or early-phase trials, or on surrogate endpoints, often under accelerated approval, meet their first goal date less often than those built on completed randomized trials. The calendar's own count does not exist yet.

Calendar cycle 65%

A clock-only model: the goal date is inside the window and FDA meets most goal dates, but first-cycle approval is less common on uncontrolled, early-phase or surrogate evidence.

Analyst proxy 75%

A hematology analyst reading the same filings on 2026-10-01 would weigh single-arm response data on a primary endpoint agreed with FDA (SRC-003), two BCMA CAR-T therapies already on CBER's approved list (SRC-005), and Kite as manufacturing and commercial partner, against a pre-approval inspection and a change of control during review. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.

Regulatory action (FDA): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.

The clock

Dates that constrain the record

Evidence cutoff
2026-10-15
Nothing after this date informed the estimate.
Registered
2026-10-15
Frozen and hashed.
Resolution window
2026-10-16 → 2026-12-23
When the adjudicator can read the outcome.
Event by
2026-12-23
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar

9F
ledger 9f476a053fbff5ae6708d1471fa3d3dedd96b3a9a3e75f53b0d346ae088a458b · operator record jc-1792036247345-3b14af2b

Around this record

Single-claim evaluation

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Your question, registered Who decides, the decision, and your date, as a public forecast like this one.
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Resolution

The rule that settles the forecast

Anitocabtagene autoleucel is a CBER-regulated biologic, so openFDA's drugsfda endpoint does not list it. Resolves YES if FDA's Purple Book (https://purplebooksearch.fda.gov/) lists a licensed biological product that is anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel) under any proprietary or proper name, with Arcellx, Kite or another Gilead Sciences subsidiary as licensee and an approval (license) date on or before 2026-12-23, and the CBER approval letter for that BLA names relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma in the indication. An approval after a different number of prior lines than the applicant sought, or for a narrower relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma population, still resolves YES. Resolves NO if no approval action is dated on or before 2026-12-23: a complete response letter, a goal-date extension, withdrawal or no action. The goal date is frozen as disclosed at the cutoff; a later extension does not move it, and an approval dated after 2026-12-23 resolves NO as occurred_after_deadline. Read no earlier than 2027-01-06. If the Purple Book has not updated by then, the CBER approval letter or FDA's list of approved products (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products/approved-cellular-and-gene-therapy-products) governs. Resolves unresolvable only if none of these can be read after the read floor. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if FDA withdraws every public record of approval actions named above without an equivalent public successor, so that no approval date for this product can be read; while any of them publishes it, the rule stands.

Source the rule names: https://purplebooksearch.fda.gov/, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products/approved-cellular-and-gene-therapy-products

Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.

What this record will show once it resolves

Beside every result, the count for its class (FDA action by goal date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.

The finding
As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
The readers and their sources
Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
The number against its baselines
75% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.

Reasoning

What the number rests on

The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.

Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff

The state of the record at the cutoff

Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-15.

review pathway
Not stated in the archived sources. BLA submitted December 23, 2025 with an anticipated PDUFA date of December 23, 2026 (SRC-003); a 12-month timeline is consistent with a standard review (drafter's understanding, unverified). CBER center is the drafter's understanding for an autologous CAR-T product, unverified.
submission type
Original BLA (SRC-003).
evidence class
Single-arm pivotal Phase 2 iMMagine-1 in fourth-line-or-later rrMM, supported by a Phase 1 study (SRC-003, SRC-004).
pivotal n
iMMagine-1: 117 patients (ORR 96%, CR/sCR 74% as reported by Arcellx) (SRC-003).
endpoint type
Overall response rate, the primary endpoint of the single-arm iMMagine-1 trial, selected on CAR-T precedent and agreed with FDA (SRC-003); key secondary endpoints sCR/CR rate and duration of response (SRC-003).
approved competitors in class
Two FDA-approved BCMA-targeted CAR-T therapies: Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel) and Carvykti (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) (SRC-003; both listed on the CBER approved products page, SRC-005).
months since last guideline revision
not applicable — no guideline is the subject of this proposition
panel cycle position
not applicable — the act is an FDA approval action
sponsor request status
BLA submitted December 23, 2025; FDA accepted it February 20, 2026 (SRC-003).
odac referral
none announced in the archived sources
sponsor state change
Gilead closed its acquisition of Arcellx in April 2026 (~$6.4 billion); Arcellx became a wholly-owned subsidiary (SRC-001). Gilead's Kite was already the co-development/co-commercialization partner (SRC-003).

Sources

Everything the estimate was built from

Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-15 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.

  1. SRC-001 Gilead Sciences Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06 (latest filing stating the date). States the anito-cel BLA in 4L+ R/R MM was accepted with a PDUFA target action date of December 23, 2026, and that Gilead closed its acquisition of Arcellx in April 2026.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000031/gild-20260630.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 d5966689c4b6acc58b939e92e2dc798c9148549b34baf98187eb8c9c8d4a43f0

  2. SRC-002 Gilead Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (Q1 2026 results), filed 2026-05-07. States the anito-cel BLA in 4L+ R/R MM was accepted with PDUFA target action date December 23, 2026.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000022/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 cdf7415bb9a4521d8daa239c680b967f0c495867c467d6e3873afa4ce4d71afc

  3. SRC-003 Arcellx Form 10-K for fiscal 2025, filed 2026-02-26. States BLA submitted December 23, 2025, accepted February 20, 2026 with anticipated PDUFA action date December 23, 2026; Fast Track, Orphan Drug and RMAT designations; iMMagine-1 data (117 patients); approved BCMA CAR-Ts Abecma and Carvykti.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786205/000119312526076876/aclx-20251231.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 c7a117052af78a2c234af4e0c075f5b7843e6de5edd9d217c1de42671026e57f

  4. SRC-004 Arcellx Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (merger announcement with Gilead), filed 2026-02-23. States the anito-cel BLA has been accepted with an anticipated PDUFA action date of December 23, 2026.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786205/000119312526063955/d112937dex991.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 a612e92e312f8559d724fe1dab98128aa134573a04f9bc5aaa9d439af685bc86

  5. SRC-005 FDA CBER "Approved Cellular and Gene Therapy Products" web page, retrieved 2026-10-01 (content current as of 09/17/2026). Lists ABECMA and CARVYKTI; does not list anitocabtagene autoleucel.

    https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/cellular-gene-therapy-products/approved-cellular-and-gene-therapy-products

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 23a506795a2d33ea05b428430abf4cff39e49fa3dfc4818297ff4e1dc5a88ed0

  6. SRC-006 openFDA drugsfda products.active_ingredients.name:"ANITOCABTAGENE AUTOLEUCEL", retrieved 2026-10-01: 404 No matches found (openFDA drugsfda does not cover CBER products; included for completeness).

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22ANITOCABTAGENE%20AUTOLEUCEL%22&limit=100

    Retrieved 2026-10-01 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da