Registered forecast
35% registered probability event by 2026-11-18 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Beremagene geperpavec for treating skin wounds associated with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa [ID3959] on or before 2026-11-18
FF-014 Registered - Registered probability
- 35%
- Event by
- 2026-11-18
- Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
- Target rung
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 60%
- Analyst proxy 40%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-014/ registry snapshot 2026-10-06 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-09-26. It is one of 11 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was claimed
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Beremagene geperpavec for treating skin wounds associated with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa' [ID3959], with a publication date on or before 2026-11-18, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta10868) on 2026-09-24.
- Authority
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Highly Specialised Technologies Evaluation Committee, appraising under the technology appraisal (STA) process (England)
- Target rungA step on the 12-rung ladder: rungs 1 to 4 are the evidence moving, rungs 5 to 7 are a guideline body, regulator, or payer acting. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Forecast classThe group of like forecasts this one is counted and scored with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa wounds
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown about eight weeks earlier is not yet counted (docs/foundations/short-horizon-reference-classes.md §4.6 names it as the census the calendar builds). Expected dates are revised often, especially when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation.
A clock-only model: NICE sets a provisional publication date a few weeks after a committee meeting that assumes the meeting reaches a final recommendation. A second committee meeting more often reaches a final recommendation than a first, which favours the date. Eight weeks from the second meeting to expected publication is on schedule if that meeting is final.
A market-access analyst reading the same project pages on 2026-09-24 would weigh the stage of the appraisal, the negative draft guidance and the history of delays. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence cutoff
- 2026-09-26
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-09-26
Frozen and hashed. - Resolution window
- 2026-09-27 → 2026-11-18
When the adjudicator can read the outcome. - Event by
- 2026-11-18
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
669bf39db23b33d8c6a6d624bcf63ac8d7517ed44c4226e27f6a7f975fd9f9a8 · operator record jc-1790461082288-50191d82
Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Waiting on NICE for an asset of your own?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID3959 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2026-11-18, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID3959. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2026-11-18, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2026-11-18, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2026-11-25. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta10868, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 35% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-09-26.
- review pathway
- single technology appraisal (STA), standard (SRC-001); second meeting heard by the highly specialised technologies evaluation committee (SRC-004)
- submission type
- new technology appraisal
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- comparator company named on the page: Chiesi (birch bark extract), participating (SRC-001)
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- committee meeting 2 dated 24 September 2026, the cutoff day, on the highly specialised technologies evaluation committee's draft agenda with ID6409 (SRC-001, SRC-004); draft guidance consultation 26 June to 10 August 2026 (SRC-001)
- sponsor request status
- rescheduled on 02 September 2025 following advice from the company, to align with latest regulatory expectations; start delayed in 2023 by a company routing challenge (SRC-001)
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- none recorded in the archived sources
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-09-26 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
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SRC-001NICE in-development page for ID3959, beremagene geperpavec for treating skin wounds associated with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, retrieved at the cutoff. Fixes the expected publication date the proposition freezes (18 November 2026), status In progress, process STA Standard, and the project history: scoping from May 2022; a 2023 note that a company routing challenge delayed the start; a restart with a second scope consultation in December 2024; a note of 02 September 2025 that the appraisal was rescheduled, following advice from the company, to align with latest regulatory expectations; committee meeting 1 on 21 May 2026; draft guidance consultation 26 June 2026 to 10 August 2026; committee meeting 2 dated 24 September 2026. -
SRC-002NICE project documents page for ID3959, retrieved at the cutoff. Lists the draft guidance with its committee papers and public committee slides, each published 26 June 2026, and the three project notes; lists no final draft guidance. -
SRC-003NICE consultation on the ID3959 draft guidance, section 1 (Recommendations), retrieved at the cutoff. The draft's recommendation 1.1 reads 'Beremagene geperpavec should not be used to treat skin wounds associated with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (DEB) in people of all ages who have mutations in the collagen type 7 alpha 1 chain (COL7A1) gene.' It gives cost-effectiveness estimates substantially above the range NICE normally considers acceptable, and says the company has not submitted a managed access proposal. The consultation ended on 10 August 2026. -
SRC-004Draft agenda of the NICE highly specialised technologies evaluation committee (HSTEC) for 24 September 2026, retrieved at the cutoff. Lists the appraisal of beremagene geperpavec [ID3959], with agreement on the content of the draft guidance or final draft guidance in closed session, after the appraisal of efgartigimod for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy [ID6409]. States the agenda is subject to change.