NextConsensus Medical-transition forecasting
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Provenance Example Baseline

GLP-1 receptor agonist (public encyclopedia provenance reconstruction)

Reconstructed from 22 public encyclopedia revisions showing article evolution

Illustrative
POSITION Provenance reconstruction
CONTEXT Metabolic
UPDATED Phase 1 · automated · public encyclopedia revision history

Source

22 revisions 3 claim families 14 variants 9 events

Reproducibility

Independent assertion extraction and claim-family grouping by two analysts, with disagreements resolved by documented criteria.

3/3 Family overlap
11/14 Variant overlap
1 Documented disagreement
Passed Reproducibility gate
Documented disagreement

Disagreement: Bridge process split a drug-list assertion into two families because word overlap fell below the 0.5 threshold; human analyst treated it as one semantic family.

Resolution: Added section-anchored joining: merge assertions in the same section when overlap > 0.3.

Re-review trigger

May warrant review

Evidence movement is visible relative to the stated use. A qualified reviewer should take another look.

  • Evidence movement is moderate based on 3 claim groups and 3 source assessments.
  • Known use context is strong from 1 recorded endorsement(s) and 2 recorded operational use(s).
  • Support and restriction signals are strong from the reviewed claim and source record.

Assessments

Family Direction Variants Disputes Last change Basis
fam-sentence-1 disputed 3 1 2012-08-22 analyst asserted
fam-sentence-2 mixed 7 0 2012-09-27 analyst asserted
fam-sentence-3 mixed 4 0 2012-09-27 analyst asserted

Claim Families

One of their advantages is that they have a lower risk of ca... 3 variants · 2 relationships
var-fam-sentence-1-1
One of their advantages is that they have a lower risk of causing hypoglycemia
Seen: 2009-01-13 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-1-2
One of their advantages (over insulin?) is that they have a lower risk of causing hypoglycemia
Seen: 2010-07-27 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-1-3
One of their advantages over older insulin secretagogues, such as sulfonylureas or meglitinides, is that they have a lower risk of causing hypoglycemia
Seen: 2012-08-22 · Basis: normalized

Relationships

qualifies var-fam-sentence-1-1 → var-fam-sentence-1-2
qualifies var-fam-sentence-1-2 → var-fam-sentence-1-3
Licenced : exenatide (2005) Under investigation : liragluti... 7 variants · 6 relationships
var-fam-sentence-2-1
Licenced : exenatide (2005) Under investigation : liraglutide, albiglutide, taspoglutide ==References==
Seen: 2009-01-13 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-2
Licenced : exenatide Under investigation : liraglutide, albiglutide ==References==
Seen: 2009-01-13 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-3
Licenced : exenatide (2005) Under investigation : albiglutide, taspoglutide ==References==
Seen: 2010-01-26 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-4
Licenced : exenatide (2005), liraglutide (2010) Under investigation : albiglutide, taspoglutide ==References==
Seen: 2010-01-27 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-5
Licenced : exenatide (2005), liraglutide (2010) Under investigation : albiglutide, taspoglutide, AVE0010
Seen: 2010-07-27 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-6
Licensed GLP-1 agonists: exenatide (licensed 2005), liraglutide (licensed 2010) Under investigation: albiglutide, taspoglutide, AVE0010
Seen: 2012-08-17 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-2-7
Licensed GLP-1 agonists: * exenatide (Byetta), licensed in 2005 * liraglutide (Victoza), licensed 2010 Under investigation: albiglutide, taspoglutide, AVE0010
Seen: 2012-09-27 · Basis: normalized

Relationships

narrows var-fam-sentence-2-1 → var-fam-sentence-2-2
qualifies var-fam-sentence-2-2 → var-fam-sentence-2-3
qualifies var-fam-sentence-2-3 → var-fam-sentence-2-4
qualifies var-fam-sentence-2-4 → var-fam-sentence-2-5
qualifies var-fam-sentence-2-5 → var-fam-sentence-2-6
qualifies var-fam-sentence-2-6 → var-fam-sentence-2-7
Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP-1 agonists) are new cl... 4 variants · 3 relationships
var-fam-sentence-3-1
Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP-1 agonists) are new classes of drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
Seen: 2012-08-17 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-3-2
Glucagon-like peptide-1 analogs are a new class of drug for treatment of type 2 diabetes
Seen: 2012-08-17 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-3-3
Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP-1 agonists) are a new class of drug for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
Seen: 2012-08-17 · Basis: normalized
var-fam-sentence-3-4
Glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists (GLP-1 agonists) are a class of drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
Seen: 2012-09-27 · Basis: normalized

Relationships

narrows var-fam-sentence-3-1 → var-fam-sentence-3-2
qualifies var-fam-sentence-3-2 → var-fam-sentence-3-3
qualifies var-fam-sentence-3-3 → var-fam-sentence-3-4

Events

2012-01-30 Revert detected Reverted edits by [[Special:Contributions/59.95.72.254|59.95.72.254]] ([[User talk:59.95.72.254|talk]]) to last revision
2023-11-12 Page moved: GLP-1 receptor agonist → Draft:Move/Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist from=GLP-1 receptor agonist to=Draft:Move/Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist comment=[[WP:PMRC#4|Round-robin histo
2012-08-17 Talk page correlation time_delta_hours=0 talk_comment=Facts707 moved page [[Talk:Glucagon-like peptide-1 analog]] to [[Talk:Glucagon-like pept
2012-08-17 Talk page correlation time_delta_hours=0 talk_comment=Facts707 moved page [[Talk:Glucagon-like peptide-1 analog]] to [[Talk:Glucagon-like pept
2012-08-17 Talk page correlation time_delta_hours=0 talk_comment=Facts707 moved page [[Talk:Glucagon-like peptide-1 analog]] to [[Talk:Glucagon-like pept
2012-08-17 Talk page correlation time_delta_hours=129.3 talk_comment=Facts707 moved page [[Talk:Glucagon-like peptide-1 analog]] to [[Talk:Glucagon-like
2005-04-28 FDA approves exenatide for type 2 diabetes FDA approves exenatide (Byetta), the first GLP-1 receptor agonist, for type 2 diabetes treatment.
2010-01-25 FDA approves liraglutide for type 2 diabetes FDA approves liraglutide (Victoza), expanding the GLP-1 receptor agonist class for type 2 diabetes.
2024-01-01 ADA Standards of Care endorse GLP-1 receptor agonists American Diabetes Association Standards of Care recommend GLP-1 receptor agonists for type 2 diabetes, particularly in p

Review Decisions

reject Confident
Family: fam-sentence-1 · Trigger: Revert detected

Reverted edits by [[Special:Contributions/59.95.72.254|59.95.72.254]] ([[User talk:59.95.72.254|talk]]) to last revision by PhiLiP ([[WP:HG|HG]])

2012-01-30 · By: unspecified · Basis: analyst asserted
adopt Confident
Family: fam-sentence-3 · Trigger: FDA approves exenatide for type 2 diabetes · Impact: support-enhanced

FDA approval provides direct institutional operationalization of the class-level T2D claim.

2005-04-28 · By: automated reviewer · Basis: analyst asserted
amend Confident
Family: fam-sentence-2 · Trigger: FDA approves liraglutide for type 2 diabetes · Impact: support-enhanced

Add liraglutide to the list of licensed GLP-1 agonists without changing the family scope.

2010-01-25 · By: automated reviewer · Basis: analyst asserted
retain-with-caveats Uncertain
Family: fam-sentence-3 · Trigger: ADA Standards of Care endorse GLP-1 receptor agonists · Impact: support-enhanced

Endorsement supports the class claim but is inferred from guideline language, not an operational record; retain with ASCVD qualification.

2024-01-01 · By: automated reviewer · Basis: analyst asserted

Institutional Reliance

FDA operational-use high
Exenatide (Byetta) approval for type 2 diabetes, NDA 021773
on var-fam-sentence-3-3

FDA approval converts the evidence claim "GLP-1 agonists are a class of drugs for type 2 diabetes" into an operational regulatory commitment for exenatide.

2005-04-28 · Basis: institution confirmed
FDA operational-use high
Liraglutide (Victoza) approval for type 2 diabetes, NDA 022341
on var-fam-sentence-2-6

FDA approval extends the operational commitment to another GLP-1 agonist, supporting the family that exenatide and liraglutide are licensed options.

2010-01-25 · Basis: institution confirmed
American Diabetes Association endorsement medium
Standards of Care in Diabetes — Glycemic Goals and Telehealth
on var-fam-sentence-3-3

ADA Standards of Care endorse GLP-1 receptor agonists for type 2 diabetes, particularly when atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is present. This is an endorsement inferred from guideline language, not an operational record of a specific institution acting on it.

2024-01-01 · Basis: inferred

Source Citations

www.fda.gov http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/uc 2010-01-27
www.medscape.com Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Analogs Other Than Exenatide 2010-07-27
www.fda.gov FDA Approves New Treatment for Type 2 Diabetes 2010-07-27
www.medscape.com http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/578304 2010-07-27
www.fda.gov http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/uc 2010-07-27
www.medscape.com http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/578304 2010-07-27
www.fda.gov http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/uc 2010-07-27
www.medscape.com Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Analogs Other Than Exenatide 2010-07-27
www.fda.gov FDA Approves New Treatment for Type 2 Diabetes 2010-07-27
Unknown Unnamed citation 2012-08-22

Cross-example impact propagation

Changes in related examples can add context to this claim history. These links show where a source event in one domain creates a question for a related claim.

← Incoming support-enhanced high
From: Liraglutide (public encyclopedia provenance reconstruction) · family fam-sentence-7

FDA approval of liraglutide for chronic weight management strengthens the cross-specimen claim that GLP-1-class drugs, including liraglutide, have an obesity/weight-management indication.

Triggered by event: FDA approves liraglutide for chronic weight management
→ Outgoing support-enhanced medium
To: Liraglutide (public encyclopedia provenance reconstruction) · family fam-sentence-3

The GLP-1 class ADA endorsement supports the liraglutide T2D mechanism claim because liraglutide is a member of the endorsed class.

Triggered by event: ADA Standards of Care endorse GLP-1 receptor agonists

What this example demonstrates

This public example shows a capability NextConsensus can deploy now: reconstructing how a medical claim changed across source versions, grouping related statements into claim families, surfacing where the record was disputed or weakened, linking claims to evidence of institutional reliance, and propagating impacts across related examples.

The underlying method preserves source-addressable artifacts, extracted assertions, claim identity, reviewer-attributed state, reliance inferences, and cross-example impact links. This example is illustrative; it is not a recommendation for clinical or institutional action.

Classification

Evidentiary

  • public encyclopedia version identifiers
  • Edit timestamps
  • Editor usernames
  • Edit comments
  • Citation URLs
  • Page move records
  • Template changes

Derived

  • Sentence-level diffs (before/after)
  • Citation added/removed events
  • Section reorganization events
  • Edit magnitude (minor/moderate/major)
  • Content change type
  • Key terms extraction
  • Direction signal (strengthening/weakening/neutral)

Inferred

  • Claim family membership
  • Claim variant relationships
  • Confidence assignment
  • Impact direction
  • Decision rationale reconstruction
  • Reliance commitment interpretation

Registered and scored forecasting for defined medical transitions.