Registered forecast
35% registered probability event by 2027-02-24 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Denecimig (Mim8) for preventing bleeding episodes in haemophilia A in people of any age [ID6400] on or before 2027-02-24
FF-058 Registered - Registered probability
- 35%
- Decision by
- 2027-02-24
- Reading window
- 2026-11-02 → 2027-02-24
- Decision stage
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 50%
- Analyst proxy 35%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-058/ registry snapshot 2026-11-01 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-11-01. It is one of 25 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was registered
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Denecimig (Mim8) for preventing bleeding episodes in haemophilia A in people of any age' [ID6400], with a publication date on or before 2027-02-24, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11509) on 2026-10-27.
- Who decides
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee (England)
- Decision stageThe kind of body that has to act: a guideline panel, a regulator, or a payer. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Decision typeThe type of decision this forecast is counted with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Preventing bleeding episodes in haemophilia A
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The estimate that the named body takes the action by the deadline, from what was public at the cutoff.
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it. They were set at registration: how often this kind of decision happens on time, what the calendar alone suggests, and a reading of the same public record without this method. Each one's reasoning shows whether it is a count of past decisions or an estimate.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a committee meeting on 7 October, 140 days before the expected date, leaves time for final draft guidance and an appeal period if that meeting reached a final recommendation.
An analyst reading the project page on 2026-10-27 would note a first meeting with nothing published from it after 20 days, an appraisal the company has already had rescheduled to fit its regulatory timeline, and an established comparator in emicizumab, and would expect draft guidance or a further slip more often than final draft guidance. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The method and every record are public, so you can check the work.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence as of
- 2026-11-01
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-11-01
Frozen and hashed. - Reading window
- 2026-11-02 → 2027-02-24
When the outcome can be read against the rule. - Event by
- 2027-02-24
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
8042d1dd1ef625639fc3cf3c9d6f9911c3ab4448dd9125456ec47cd63ebb2ac8 · operator record jc-1793551264648-5be8dcc9 Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Single-claim evaluation
Evaluating a claim that NICE could change?
Name the claim, who decides it, and the date your team commits to: a P&T meeting, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing. The stake need not be ownership — a claim you evaluate, finance, advise on, or rely upon is enough. Yours is registered under the same rules as the forecast on this page.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6400 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2027-02-24, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6400. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2027-02-24, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2027-02-24, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2027-03-03. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11509, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 35% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-11-01.
- review pathway
- STA Standard ("Process: STA Standard", SRC-001)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company "Novo Nordisk (Denecimig [Mim8])"; technology type Medicine (SRC-001, SRC-004)
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- Comparator companies on SRC-001: Roche (emicizumab), Pfizer (moroctocog alfa), Takeda (octocog alfa, susoctocog alfa) and Swedish Orphan Biovitrum, participating; Bio Products Laboratory, CSL Behring UK, Grifols UK, Novo Nordisk (eptacog alfa, turoctocog alfa pegol) and Octopharma (simoctocog alfa), not participating. Emicizumab is, in the drafter's understanding, the comparator in denecimig's class (factor VIII mimetic bispecific antibodies); the archived pages do not classify either.
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting on 7 October 2026, 140 days before the expected publication date of 24 February 2027. No draft guidance, consultation or second meeting is listed at the cutoff, 20 days after the meeting (SRC-001; SRC-002). The enquiry address is TACommD, and committee D met on 7 October 2026 (SRC-003).
- sponsor request status
- Rescheduled "following on from advice received from the company" "to align with latest regulatory expectations", with the appraisal starting in March 2026 (status of 18 December 2025, repeated as a project note on 19 January 2026; SRC-001, SRC-002). No request is recorded since.
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- None recorded since the appraisal began in March 2026 (SRC-001).
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-11-01 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page for ID6400, denecimig (Mim8) for preventing bleeding episodes in haemophilia A in people of any age, retrieved at the cutoff. -
SRC-002NICE project documents page for ID6400, retrieved at the cutoff. -
SRC-003NICE technology appraisal committee meetings page, retrieved at the cutoff. -
SRC-004Final stakeholder list (PDF) for the appraisal: names the company and the possible comparator companies.