Registered forecast

80% registered probability event by 2027-02-27 Unresolved

FDA approves zipalertinib for EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC after platinum-based chemotherapy on or before the disclosed PDUFA goal date of 2027-02-27

FF-064 Registered Unresolved
Registered probability
80%
Decision by
2027-02-27
Reading window
2026-10-22 → 2027-02-27
Decision stage
  1. 5 Guideline
  2. 6 Regulatory
  3. 7 Coverage
Baselines it has to beat
  • Authority base rate 85%
  • Calendar cycle 80%
  • Analyst proxy 80%

nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-064/ registry snapshot 2026-11-07 Share image

NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-11-04. It is one of 35 registered FDA goal-date forecasts.

The proposition

What was registered

The FDA takes an approval action on the New Drug Application for zipalertinib (Taiho Oncology, developed with Cullinan Therapeutics) for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer with EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations whose disease has progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy, with an approval action date on or before 2027-02-27, the PDUFA target action date disclosed in Exhibit 99.1 to Cullinan Therapeutics’ Form 8-K filed 2026-08-06.
Who decides
US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) (US)
Decision stageThe kind of body that has to act: a guideline panel, a regulator, or a payer. The ladder, rung by rung
Rung 6: Regulatory action — Label/indication change, approval action, REMS modification, or withdrawal by FDA, EMA, PMDA, Health Canada, etc.
Decision typeThe type of decision this forecast is counted with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
FDA action by goal date
Scope
EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC after platinum-based chemotherapy

The estimate

The number and the baselines it has to beat

80% probability, method v0.1.0 · frozen at the 2026-10-21 cutoff

The estimate that the named body takes the action by the deadline, from what was public at the cutoff.

The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it. They were set at registration: how often this kind of decision happens on time, what the calendar alone suggests, and a reading of the same public record without this method. Each one's reasoning shows whether it is a count of past decisions or an estimate.

Authority base rate 85%

ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. Oncology NDAs for targeted therapies in biomarker-defined populations with Breakthrough Therapy designation are approved at their first goal date in a large majority of cases. The calendar’s own met-goal-date share for disclosed PDUFA dates does not exist yet (docs/foundations/short-horizon-reference-classes.md §4.1).

Calendar cycle 80%

A clock-only model: the goal date is inside the window, FDA meets most goal dates, and most first-cycle actions on original NDAs are approvals. With no evidence input it cannot tell a strong application from a weak one.

Analyst proxy 80%

An analyst reading the same filings on 2026-10-21 would weigh a 40% confirmed response rate after chemotherapy, Breakthrough Therapy designation and a positive randomized phase 3 in first line against standard rather than priority review, two approved therapies in the setting, and a lower response rate after amivantamab. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.

Regulatory action (FDA): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.

The method and every record are public, so you can check the work.

The clock

Dates that constrain the record

Evidence as of
2026-10-21
Nothing after this date informed the estimate.
Registered
2026-11-04
Frozen and hashed.
Reading window
2026-10-22 → 2027-02-27
When the outcome can be read against the rule.
Event by
2027-02-27
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
ledger 026e0e3139f9355d4aef095c51f8dc1dea73043a98580be122eca1b464b1f8e0
· operator record jc-1793799251901-519395ba

Around this record

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Resolution

The rule that settles the forecast

The application number was not public at the cutoff, and openFDA held no record for the ingredient (SRC-006, SRC-007). The adjudicator identifies the qualifying approval by its indication plus its ingredient, never by a name the adjudicator infers: an approval action whose Drugs@FDA approval letter or label names non-small cell lung cancer with EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations in patients previously treated with platinum-based chemotherapy in its indication, for a product whose active ingredient is zipalertinib (CLN-081, TAS6417) or a salt of it, under any applicant (Taiho Oncology, Taiho Pharmaceutical or another Taiho or Otsuka affiliate) and any proprietary name. Resolves YES if the openFDA Drugs@FDA records returned by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22ZIPALERTINIB%22&limit=100 and by https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22zipalertinib%22&limit=100, read together (openFDA does not always fill the generic-name field for a new application), contain such an approval: an application whose ORIG submission has submission_status AP and a submission_status_date on or before 2027-02-27. Accelerated rather than traditional approval resolves YES, as does an indication narrower than the applicant sought within that previously treated population (for example, limited to patients not previously treated with amivantamab). An approval only for first-line use with chemotherapy, the separate submission begun on 2026-10-01 (SRC-005), does not count and resolves partial_nonqualifying. Resolves NO if no qualifying approval action is dated on or before 2027-02-27: a complete response letter, a goal-date extension, withdrawal or no action. The goal date is frozen as disclosed at the cutoff; a later extension does not move it, and an approval dated after 2027-02-27 resolves NO as occurred_after_deadline. 2027-02-27 is a Saturday; an approval action dated that day still counts. Read no earlier than 2027-03-13. If openFDA has not refreshed by then, or both queries return nothing, the Drugs@FDA web record (https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/, searched by the name zipalertinib) governs, under the same identification test. Resolves unresolvable only if none of these sources can be read after the read floor. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if FDA withdraws every public record of approval actions named above without an equivalent public successor, so that no approval date for this product can be read; while any of them publishes it, the rule stands.

Source the rule names: https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22zipalertinib%22&limit=100, https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22ZIPALERTINIB%22&limit=100, https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/

Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.

What this record will show once it resolves

Beside every result, the count for its class (FDA action by goal date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.

The finding
As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
The readers and their sources
Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
The number against its baselines
80% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.

Reasoning

What the number rests on

The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.

Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff

The state of the record at the cutoff

Recorded as they stood on 2026-10-21.

review pathway
Standard review, inferred from the timing: rolling NDA completed February 2026, accepted April 2026, goal date 2027-02-27 (SRC-002, SRC-003); seeking accelerated approval (SRC-003, SRC-005). Breakthrough Therapy designation since 2022 (SRC-003). Center CDER is the drafter’s understanding (a small-molecule NDA), unverified.
submission type
Original NDA for zipalertinib (SRC-001, SRC-002); application number not public, and openFDA holds no record for the ingredient (SRC-006, SRC-007).
evidence class
Single-arm pivotal phase 2b portion of REZILIENT1 (SRC-003); supported by the randomized phase 3 REZILIENT3 in first line, which met its PFS primary endpoint at a planned interim analysis (SRC-004).
pivotal n
125 patients previously treated with chemotherapy only, plus 84 after amivantamab with or without other exon 20 targeted therapy (SRC-003)
endpoint type
Surrogate: confirmed objective response rate and duration of response (SRC-003).
approved competitors in class
Two companies have FDA-approved therapies for EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC, Johnson & Johnson and Dizal Pharmaceutical (SRC-003).
months since last guideline revision
not applicable — no guideline is the subject of this proposition
panel cycle position
not applicable — the act is an FDA approval action
sponsor request status
NDA accepted April 2026 with a PDUFA target action date of 2027-02-27 (SRC-001, SRC-002); restated as under review on 2026-10-01 (SRC-005).
odac referral
none announced in the archived sources
sponsor state change
REZILIENT3 met its primary endpoint at a planned interim analysis, with results presented 2026-09-13 (SRC-004); a first-line NDA submission under Real-Time Oncology Review was initiated 2026-10-01, completion expected by year-end 2026 (SRC-005).

Sources

Everything the estimate was built from

Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-10-21 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.

  1. SRC-001 Cullinan Therapeutics Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-08-06: Q2 2026 results release. In April the FDA accepted an NDA for zipalertinib for locally advanced or metastatic EGFR ex20ins NSCLC that progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy, with or without amivantamab; PDUFA target action date February 27, 2027; Taiho had completed REZILIENT3 enrollment in February.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789972/000119312526336700/cgem-ex99_1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 948b02e01068e06b7b67457828582bbbfbf9c2a12e425f001762f61e504d04f9

  2. SRC-002 Cullinan Therapeutics Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06: the NDA accepted in April 2026 is supported by the pivotal phase 2b portion of REZILIENT1; PDUFA target action date February 27, 2027; Taiho is the collaborator and will commercialize; Cullinan is eligible for 30 million dollars on U.S. approval in previously treated EGFR ex20ins NSCLC.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789972/000119312526336717/cgem-20260630.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 a954f54a32952fde51b39f58a0f2505f0d87475dcf374d10b8a46c885f4e4a88

  3. SRC-003 Cullinan Therapeutics Form 10-K for 2025, filed 2026-03-10: Breakthrough Therapy designation (2022) in EGFR ex20ins NSCLC after platinum chemotherapy; REZILIENT1 phase 2b met its ORR primary endpoint: confirmed ORR 40%, median DOR 8.8 months in 125 patients after chemotherapy only (Dec 2024 cutoff), ORR 27.4% in 84 and 31.5% in 54 after amivantamab (June 2025 cutoff); Taiho completed the rolling NDA seeking accelerated approval in February 2026; two companies (Johnson & Johnson, Dizal) have FDA-approved therapies in the setting.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789972/000119312526099362/cgem-20251231.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 609bcc18e815cb107355936cb4689b542498b6053e38bb4119709229a2725c5c

  4. SRC-004 Cullinan Therapeutics Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-09-14 (press release dated 2026-09-13): REZILIENT3 phase 3 results at WCLC 2026, zipalertinib plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy in first-line EGFR ex20ins NSCLC: median PFS 14.5 versus 8.5 months (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.34-0.73) at the planned interim analysis, ORR 65.0% versus 40.3%, interim OS HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.42-1.23) at 30% maturity; 279 randomized.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789972/000119312526389844/cgem-ex99_1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 ad47b4bdfbacbfe88195d14c69ace50351f8a484befa9313c522ee8bcec1b5a9

  5. SRC-005 Cullinan Therapeutics Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-10-02 (press release dated 2026-10-01; latest Cullinan filing before the cutoff): NDA submission for zipalertinib plus chemotherapy in first-line EGFR ex20ins NSCLC initiated under Real-Time Oncology Review, completion expected by year-end 2026; the NDA seeking accelerated approval of zipalertinib monotherapy after platinum chemotherapy remains under FDA review with a PDUFA target action date of February 27, 2027.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789972/000119312526411011/cgem-ex99_1.htm

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 e1d49480bafe0e81a61efd78948cc842d792cb2874d53c1cea4853149d43ae90

  6. SRC-006 openFDA drugsfda products.active_ingredients.name:"ZIPALERTINIB", retrieved 2026-10-21: 404 No matches found. No application for the ingredient.

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=products.active_ingredients.name:%22ZIPALERTINIB%22&limit=100

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da

  7. SRC-007 openFDA drugsfda openfda.generic_name:"zipalertinib", retrieved 2026-10-21: 404 No matches found.

    https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json?search=openfda.generic_name:%22zipalertinib%22&limit=100

    Retrieved 2026-10-21 · sha256 57b1e7534d003e4246182162fd2469cdf038de39405056f44fc006715e5496da