Registered forecast
35% registered probability event by 2027-03-03 Unresolved
NICE publishes technology appraisal guidance on Remibrutinib for treating chronic spontaneous urticaria inadequately controlled by H1-antihistamines [ID6356] on or before 2027-03-03
FF-065 Registered - Registered probability
- 35%
- Decision by
- 2027-03-03
- Reading window
- 2026-11-08 → 2027-03-03
- Decision stage
- 5 Guideline
- 6 Regulatory
- 7 Coverage
- Baselines it has to beat
-
- Authority base rate 50%
- Calendar cycle 55%
- Analyst proxy 35%
nextconsensus.com/forecast/ff-065/ registry snapshot 2026-11-07 Share image
NextConsensus registered this probability on 2026-11-04. It is one of 26 registered NICE scheduled-date forecasts.
The proposition
What was registered
NICE publishes final technology appraisal guidance for the appraisal 'Remibrutinib for treating chronic spontaneous urticaria inadequately controlled by H1-antihistamines' [ID6356], with a publication date on or before 2027-03-03, the expected publication date shown on its in-development page (https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11416) on 2026-11-03.
- Who decides
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Technology Appraisal Committee B (England)
- Decision stageThe kind of body that has to act: a guideline panel, a regulator, or a payer. The ladder, rung by rung
- Rung 7: Payer/coverage action — NCD, LCD, formulary change, step-therapy revision, or access expansion/restriction by CMS, MACs, or major commercial payers.
- Decision typeThe type of decision this forecast is counted with, such as FDA actions by their goal dates
- NICE guidance by scheduled date
- Scope
- Chronic spontaneous urticaria inadequately controlled by H1-antihistamines
The estimate
The number and the baselines it has to beat
The estimate that the named body takes the action by the deadline, from what was public at the cutoff.
The alternatives it was registered against, each with the reasoning that produced it. They were set at registration: how often this kind of decision happens on time, what the calendar alone suggests, and a reading of the same public record without this method. Each one's reasoning shows whether it is a count of past decisions or an estimate.
ESTIMATE FROM THE SHAPE OF THE CLASS, NOT AN ENUMERATED COUNT. The share of NICE technology appraisals published on or before the expected date shown at the cutoff is not yet counted; the calendar's census will count it. Expected dates are revised often, most when a committee meeting does not reach a final recommendation or a company asks for time.
A clock-only model: a second committee meeting on 7 January 2027, 55 days before the expected date, is treated as on schedule: the model assumes final draft guidance and an appeal period fit in that time.
An analyst reading the project page and draft guidance on 2026-11-03 would weigh negative draft guidance that could not settle a most likely cost-effectiveness estimate, and a second meeting that needs new comparative analyses, against a marketing authorisation already granted and a schedule NICE set after consultation. Estimated by reconstructing that read, not by surveying analysts.
Technology appraisal (NICE): offered on judgment, with no calibration figure until 15 in the class have resolved.
The method and every record are public, so you can check the work.
The clock
Dates that constrain the record
- Evidence as of
- 2026-11-07
Nothing after this date informed the estimate. - Registered
- 2026-11-04
Frozen and hashed. - Reading window
- 2026-11-08 → 2027-03-03
When the outcome can be read against the rule. - Event by
- 2027-03-03
The final qualifying action date; the frozen resolution rule defines what counts. Add to calendar
c8f0f65c5ee72de50abec8705c94ac091cf02e389c45eb5289358cfa68f8c3da · operator record jc-1793799392115-38e2ea81 Around this record
- This kind of deadline
- Check it, follow it
Confidential Asset & Milestone Evaluation
Evaluating an asset or milestone that NICE could move?
Name the asset, the deciding authority, and the date your team commits to: a P&T review, an HTA submission, a label negotiation, a deal closing, or a milestone dispute. Your stake need not be direct sponsorship — an asset you evaluate, finance, advise on, or rely upon is enough. Every commercial evaluation applies the same rigorous pre-registration and primary-source verification shown on this page, delivered privately under mutual NDA.
Resolution
The rule that settles the forecast
Resolves YES if the NICE technology appraisal guidance page published from project ID6356 shows a publication date ('Published: <date>') on or before 2027-03-03, whatever the guidance recommends. The adjudicator finds the page from the in-development page above, which links to or redirects to the published guidance, or by searching nice.org.uk for ID6356. Resolves NO if the guidance is published after 2027-03-03, if the expected date is revised and nothing is published by 2027-03-03, if the appraisal is paused or suspended past that date, or if it is terminated. A terminated appraisal stays in the denominator and resolves NO, as registry/CALENDAR.md's rule for this class says. Resolves cancelled_external only if NICE removes the appraisal from its work programme without publishing anything. The frozen date is the one archived at the cutoff; a later revision does not move it. Read no earlier than 2027-03-10. The recommendation itself is a different question and is not scored here. Resolves VOID, with the reason recorded, only if NICE stops publishing technology appraisal guidance pages with publication dates, so that no publication date for this appraisal can be read from nice.org.uk or its successor; while a publication date can be read, the rule stands.
Source the rule names: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta11416, https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/published?ngt=Technology%20appraisal%20guidance
Readers: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. The same two reader roles are assigned to every forecast registered so far.
What this record will show once it resolves
Beside every result, the count for its class (NICE guidance by scheduled date): registered, resolved, unresolved, and expired. One forecast is one instance, not a rate.
- The finding
- As the rule above reads it: occurred on time, did not occur, or left unscored.
- The readers and their sources
- Two reader roles read the source named above: Resolver A, clinical methodology; Resolver B, payer evidence. Who adjudicated it is named here, with the sources they read when the adjudication lists them. Being named as a reader means applying the frozen rule to the public record; it is not support for the estimate, the method, or NextConsensus.
- The number against its baselines
- 35% beside three baselines, each scored by the same rule (squared error), so a reader can see how the record did against each of them.
Reasoning
What the number rests on
The facts it was built from are below, as they stood at the cutoff, with every source archived; each baseline above carries the reasoning that produced it. The written mechanism and the conditions that would make the proposition ill-posed were frozen with the record and are held in the ledger, which the hash on this page covers.
Frozen covariatesThe facts about the evidence and the authority's process that were frozen with the forecast at its cutoff
The state of the record at the cutoff
Recorded as they stood on 2026-11-07.
- review pathway
- STA Standard by Technology Appraisal Committee B (SRC-001, SRC-003)
- submission type
- New appraisal; company Novartis Pharmaceuticals (SRC-001). Remibrutinib (Rhapsido) holds a marketing authorisation for CSU in adults with inadequate response to H1-antihistamines (SRC-003).
- evidence class
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date, not an evidence judgement
- pivotal n
- not applicable
- endpoint type
- not applicable — the proposition is a publication date
- approved competitors in class
- Comparators named on the project page include omalizumab (Novartis, not participating), ciclosporin, methotrexate and H1- and H2-antihistamine manufacturers, all not participating (SRC-001); omalizumab is recommended for severe CSU in TA339 (SRC-003).
- months since last guideline revision
- not applicable
- panel cycle position
- Committee meeting 1: 13 August 2026; draft guidance consultation 04 September - 25 September 2026; committee meeting 2 scheduled 07 January 2027 (104 days after consultation closed), 55 days before the expected publication date of 03 March 2027 (SRC-001, SRC-002, SRC-003). The committees page lists Committee B meetings only to 10 December 2026 (SRC-004).
- sponsor request status
- No company request for more time or pause is recorded on the project page (SRC-001).
- odac referral
- not applicable — NICE committee, not an FDA advisory committee
- sponsor state change
- none recorded in the archived sources
Sources
Everything the estimate was built from
Each was retrieved on or before the 2026-11-07 cutoff and archived at the digest shown. If a publisher edits a page after the fact, the digest stops matching and the substitution is visible.
-
SRC-001NICE in-development page (Project information tab) for GID-TA11416. Shows 'Expected publication date: 03 March 2027', status 'In progress', 'Process: STA Standard', provisional schedule (committee meeting 2: 07 January 2027; expected publication 03 March 2027), company Novartis Pharmaceuticals, comparator companies, enquiries to TACommB, and the timeline (committee meeting 1 on 13 August 2026; draft guidance 04 September - 25 September 2026). -
SRC-002NICE Project documents tab for GID-TA11416. Latest documents: draft guidance (online and downloadable), equality impact assessment and committee papers, published 04 September 2026; no final draft guidance and no final guidance listed. -
SRC-003Draft guidance consultation PDF (issue date September 2026). Recommendation 1.1: remibrutinib should not be used to treat CSU inadequately controlled by H1-antihistamines in adults; the most likely cost-effectiveness estimates cannot be determined. Key dates: closing date for comments 25 September 2026; second evaluation committee meeting 07 January 2027. Marketing authorisation (Rhapsido, Novartis) in section 2.1; a commercial arrangement in section 2.4. 'This topic was considered by committee B.' -
SRC-004NICE Technology appraisal committees page. Lists next meeting dates for Committees A to D through December 2026, including Committee B on 16 September, 15 October, 12 November and 10 December 2026; no 2027 date is listed.